Home Daily Commentaries Kiwi extends break, testing 67 US cents

Kiwi extends break, testing 67 US cents

Daily Currency Update

The NZD upturn continued Wednesday amid a sustained risk on mood and broader USD weakness. Having broken through 0.6650 the NZD touched intraday highs at 0.6690 before edging lower into this morning’s open. While the NZD remains vulnerable to a sudden shift in risk demand amid heightened uncertainty, conviction in the current risk play appears to the strengthening. Markets continue to ignore the slew of negative COVID19 related headlines instead jumping on any sign a recovery is in sight. This weeks increased Fiscal stimulus platform in Europe and Australia, coupled with positive steps in the race for a COVID19 vaccine have sparked a fresh run on equities and commodity led currencies, pushing the Kiwi through resistance and opening the door for further upside.

Attentions remain squarely affixed to COVID19 developments with US congress continuing to debate the specifics of its next 1 trillion-dollar fiscal support package. We expect the NZD to sustain gains as long as risk aversion continues to ease.

Key Movers

The Euro continued its advance through trade on Wednesday, marking its highest level in nearly two years as risk continued to spur demand in the wake of the EU leaders finalized Recovery Fund plan. The Single currency pushed through 1.16, touching intraday highs at 1.1601 before edging lower into this morning’s Australasian open. The USD remains weak amid signs its bull run may be ending. While uncertainty and risk aversion continue to provide a safe haven floor, fundamentals are starting to turn against the world’s base currency. Investors are shifting focus to Europe as the EU’s proactive and aggressive fiscal stimulus measures are expected to guide the area out of the COVID19 pandemic faster than their US counterparts as congress continues to battle partisan objectives, delaying much needed fiscal support. The Dollar index fell another two tenths of a percent on Wednesday, marking its lowest level since March. As real interest rates continue to fall demand for the USD as high yield play is also diminishing adding increased downward pressure. The USD did however advance against the Great British Pound as Sterling lost ground following reports the UK had abandoned hopes of securing a Free Trade Deal with the US before years end, while fears the Brexit Transition period will end without a deal grow. Having left the common market the UK is excluded from the EU Recovery Fund plans, funds that would be warmly welcomed as Britain’s debt continues to mount. Having slipped below 1.27 the GBP touched intraday lows at 1.2650 and is likely to remain under pressure as its economic future remains clouded.

Expected Ranges

  • NZD/USD: 0.6530 - 0.6720 ▲
  • NZD/EUR: 0.5720 - 0.5780 ▼
  • GBP/NZD: 1.8980 - 1.9220 ▼
  • NZD/AUD: 0.9280 - 0.9410 ▲
  • NZD/CAD: 0.8890 - 0.9020 ▲