Daily Currency Update
The New Zealand dollar is slightly stronger this morning when valued against the Greenback currently trading at 0.6000 at the time of writing. The NZD/USD pair trades in positive territory for the third consecutive day during the early Asian trading hours on Friday. The uptick of the pair is bolstered by the further selling pressure of the Greenback. Last week on the data front Stats NZ confirmed a widely-expected uptick in the jobless rate to 4.3 per cent as the post-COVID slowdown begins to bite. Unemployment was four per cent in the last quarter, and 3.4 per cent a year ago. It is the fourth quarter in a row that the jobless rate has risen, taking the rate to its highest level in three years. Looking ahead to this week and today we will see the release of the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) Commodity Price Index. The average price of the nation's main commodity exports are sampled on the global market and then compared to the previous sampling. On Wednesday we will see the release of the Global Dairy Trade (GDT). The weighted-average price of the 9 dairy products sold at auction are sampled and then compared to the previous sampling. Finally, on Friday BusinessNZ will release the Performance of Manufacturing Index a survey of manufacturers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories.
Key Movers
In the United States last week we saw the releases of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and Unemployment Rate for April on Friday. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the US rose 175,000 in April, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday. This reading followed the 315,000 increase (revised from 303,000) recorded in March and came in below the market expectation of 243,000. Further details of the jobs report showed that the Unemployment Rate edged higher to 3.9% from 3.8%, while the Labor Force Participation Rate held steady at 62.7%. Additionally, wage inflation, as measured by the change in the Average Hourly Earnings, declined to 3.9% on a yearly basis from 4.1%. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell remains cautious about inflation's uncertain trajectory, emphasizing that restrictive monetary policy has curtailed economic overheating. Market predictions for a Fed rate reduction by September have intensified due to the weak labor market figures. US Treasury bond yields plunged with the 2-year yield at 4.80%, while the 5-year and 10-year yields declined to 4.50% and 4.58%, respectively.
Expected Ranges
- NZD/USD: 0.5900 - 0.6100 ▲
- NZD/EUR: 0.5500 - 0.5700 ▲
- GBP/NZD: 2.0700 - 2.0900 ▼
- NZD/AUD: 1.0900 - 1.1100 ▼
- NZD/CAD: 0.8100 - 0.8300 ▲