Daily Currency Update
The New Zealand dollar is slightly weaker when valued against the Greenback currently trading at 0.6069 at the time of writing. The Kiwi dollar traded lower on Friday moving below US$0.61, extending its losses for the second successive day. Stronger than expected US GDP Annualized provided support for the Greenback, which in turn, undermines the NZD/USD pair. Last week the NZ Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a decline from the previous figures, aligning with market expectations. Despite the decrease, consumer inflation remains above the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) target range of 1.0% to 3.0%. This diminishes the likelihood of an immediate interest rate cut by the RBNZ in February's meeting. Looking ahead today Investors are anticipated to look for insights into the country's exports and imports situation through the upcoming Trade Balance NZD data. On Wednesday we will see the release of the ANZ Business Confidence survey of about 1,500-2,000 businesses which asks respondents to rate the relative 12-month economic outlook.
Key Movers
In the US on Friday all important inflation gauges showed that the rate of price increases cooled as 2023 came to a close. The Commerce Department’s personal consumption expenditures price index for December, an important gauge for the Federal Reserve, increased 0.2% on the month and was up 2.9% on a yearly basis, excluding food and energy. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective increases of 0.2% and 3%. On a monthly basis, core inflation increased from 0.1% in November. However, the annual rate declined from 3.2%. The 12-month rate is the lowest since March 2021. Including volatile food and energy costs, headline inflation also rose 0.2% for the month and held steady at 2.6% annually. The Fed’s benchmark overnight interest rate is currently targeted between 5.25%-5.5. US equities closed mixed on Friday to cap off a week of stunning record closes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) gained 60 points to close up 0.16% at $38,109.43 while the Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P) Major equity index closed down 0.07%, shedding a little over 3 points and ending Friday at $4,890.97. The NASDAQ Composite declined on tech stock hesitancy, losing 55 points and closing down by a third of a percent at $15,455.36.
Expected Ranges
- NZD/USD: 0.5950 - 0.6150 ▼
- NZD/EUR: 0.5500 - 0.5700 ▼
- GBP/NZD: 2.0600 - 2.0800 ▲
- NZD/AUD: 1.0600 - 1.0800 ▲
- NZD/CAD: 0.8030 - 0.8230 ▲