Home Daily Commentaries New Zealand dollar continues to trade below US$0.61

New Zealand dollar continues to trade below US$0.61

Brett Ottawa
Written by
Brett Ottawa

Brett Ottawa

OFXpert

Brett brings a wealth of experience, boasting more than 15 years in the foreign exchange market.

| Monday 4 March, 2024

Daily Currency Update

The New Zealand dollar is slightly weaker this morning when valued against the Greenback currently trading at 0.6074 at the time of writing. The Kiwi dollar broke its four-day losing streak following comments from Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Adrian Orr on Friday. Orr stated that the central bank anticipates commencing policy normalization in 2025. As a result, the pair climb higher reaching near 0.6090 during the Asian session. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Adrian Orr reiterated that he was confident the current official cash rate was restricting demand but it would need to remain at current levels to keep inflation tracking lower. "We're in a position where we are locked in saying inflation is going to be returning (to the 1%-3% target band) but that is subject to us retaining a restrictive stance with the official cash rate," he said at a parliamentary committee.
Looking ahead this week and today Statistics New Zealand will release the quarterly Overseas Trade Index. On Tuesday we will see the release of the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) Commodity Price Index which measures the average price of the nation's main commodity exports are sampled on the global market and then compared to the previous sampling. On Wednesday we will see the release of the Global Dairy Trade (GDT) which compares the weighted-average price of the 9 dairy products sold at auction. Finally, on Friday Statistics New Zealand will release the quarterly Economic Survey of Manufacturing.

Key Movers

In the US on Friday the Manufacturing PMI registered 47.8 percent in February, down 1.3 percentage points from the 49.1 percent recorded in January. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 46th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI above 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index moved back into contraction territory at 49.2 percent, 3.3 percentage points lower than the 52.5 percent recorded in January.
Looking ahead this week Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will appear before Congress both on Wednesday and Thursday for his semiannual testimony. Investors usually focus on the Q&A session with lawmakers, where the Fed chief will be grilled on the economic outlook. However, all eyes will be on Friday when the latest US employment report hits the markets. Economists expect another round of solid job numbers, which would reaffirm that the labor market remains in good shape. Some early indicators pointed to a slowdown in employment growth in February.

Expected Ranges

  • NZD/USD: 0.5975 - 0.6175 ▼
  • NZD/EUR: 0.5500 - 0.5700 ▼
  • GBP/NZD: 2.0500 - 2.0700 ▲
  • NZD/AUD: 1.0500 - 1.0700 ▲
  • NZD/CAD: 0.8100 - 0.8300 ▼

Written by

Brett Ottawa

OFXpert

Brett brings a wealth of experience, boasting more than 15 years in the foreign exchange market. He started his foreign exchange career with OFX more than a decade ago, as a private dealer catering to individual clients. He later transitioned to the corporate sector, assuming the position of Corporate Senior Relationship Manager. What truly excites Brett is the opportunity to engage with people, supporting their business growth and sharing in their successes.