Home Daily Commentaries Aussie dollar falls below US$0.65

Aussie dollar falls below US$0.65

Brett Ottawa
Written by
Brett Ottawa

Brett Ottawa

OFXpert

Brett brings a wealth of experience, boasting more than 15 years in the foreign exchange market.

| Monday 19 February, 2024

Daily Currency Update

The Australian dollar is weaker this morning when valued against the Greenback trading at 0.6494 at the time of writing. The Aussie dollar attempted to move into positive territory after trimming intraday losses early last week. Last Thursday Australian employment was surprisingly weak in January, while the jobless rate climbed to a two-year high in another sign the labour market was loosening in the face of a slowing economy and subdued consumer demand. Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday showed net employment rose just 500 in January from December when it dived 62,800. Market forecasts had been for an increase of around 30,000, though the series has been very volatile in recent months. On Thursday, the AUD/USD pair traded near 0.6520, marking a gain of 0.40% mainly driven by the report of weak economic data from the United States.
Looking ahead this week on the data front on Tuesday the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will release the latest Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. A detailed record of the RBA Reserve Bank Board's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates. On Wednesday the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the quarterly Wage Price Index which is a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when businesses pay more for labor the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer. Finally, on Thursday we will see the release of the Flash Manufacturing PMI a survey of about 400 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories.

Key Movers

In the US U.S. consumer sentiment was little changed in February while one-year inflation expectations ticked up, a survey showed on Friday. The University of Michigan's preliminary reading on the overall index of consumer sentiment came in at 79.6 this month, compared to 79.0 in January. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a preliminary reading of 80.0. The survey's reading of one-year inflation expectations edged up to 3.0% this month from 2.9% in January. Near-term inflation expectations are within the 2.3%-3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. The survey's five-year inflation outlook was unchanged at 2.9% for the third straight month. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand in the US rose 0.9% on a yearly basis in January. This reading followed the 1% increase recorded in December but came in above the market expectation of 0.6%. The annual Core PPI rose 2% in the same period, compared to December's increase of 1.8%. On a monthly basis, the Core PPI was up 0.5% following the 0.1% decline recorded in the previous month.

Expected Ranges

  • AUD/USD: 0.6400 - 0.6600 ▲
  • AUD/EUR: 0.5950 - 0.6150 ▼
  • GBP/AUD: 1.9200 - 1.9400 ▲
  • AUD/NZD: 1.0550 - 1.0750 ▼
  • AUD/CAD: 0.8700 - 0.8900 ▲

Written by

Brett Ottawa

OFXpert

Brett brings a wealth of experience, boasting more than 15 years in the foreign exchange market. He started his foreign exchange career with OFX more than a decade ago, as a private dealer catering to individual clients. He later transitioned to the corporate sector, assuming the position of Corporate Senior Relationship Manager. What truly excites Brett is the opportunity to engage with people, supporting their business growth and sharing in their successes.