Sterling set for diverging paths against the Euro and Dollar
Daily Currency Update
As we turn into the back end of the week, the pound has seemingly entered a calmer state with overnight gains against the buck and more stable weekly ranges against the EUR.Despite treading water for much of the last 3 trading days, we can see that GBP/EUR is offering more insight into the performance of the pound alone and giving us a slightly better window into UK affairs and how the market is interpreting their impact on the UK economy in comparison to other major peers.
Given the slowing economy and growing fears on the sustainability of UK public finances, the current state of affair’s doesn’t make for good reading and this was compounded by the latest report from the Office for Budget Responsibility.
With fiscal uncertainty still ongoing and weighing heavy on sterling’s growth prospects, it seems likely that the Governments current solution would involve imposing further tax hikes to aid in the reduction of the current deficit. However it is widely accepted that this will likely deepen the current trend of reduced spending within the countries economy and further dampen economic activity.
For the time being at least, it would look as though the government is out of ideas since the u-turn on welfare cuts and the UK’s fiscal priorities are currently very muddled.
Key Movers
Overnight there have been further developments on the tariff saga with action against Brazil underpinning why the greenback’s decline is looking set to continue.President Trump has instructed a 50% import tariff on Brazilian imports, which currently sits as the largest tariff announced so far. The slight difference in the imposition of this tariff is that, this time around it is not so much to do with trade imbalances but more so Brazil’s internal affairs.
Early claims are that this tariff has been imposed in order to assist and support former Brazilian President and friend of Trump, Jair Bolsonaro. All this points to the fact that tariff uncertainty is not going to fade any time soon.
Whilst in the long run, this will not have caused too much change in views on the performance of the US dollar, it will add to long term structural weakness throughout the remainder of 2025 and 2026.
It has become more clear that Trump is trying to use tariffs to achieve a number of his political goals which will further add to uncertainty for receiving nations and cause global trade fears to continue.
Expected Ranges
- GBP/USD: 1.3590 - 1.3650 ▲
- GBP/EUR: 1.1575 - 1.1625 ▼
- GBP/AUD: 2.0705 - 2.0850 ▲
- EUR/USD: 1.1715 - 1.775 ▲