Home Daily Commentaries AUD steadies as trade headlines sideline major bets

AUD steadies as trade headlines sideline major bets

Matt Richardson
Written by
Matt Richardson

Matt Richardson

OFXpert

Matt provides expertise in currency risk management to his clients, drawing from his 14 years of experience in foreign exchange.

| Monday 30 June, 2025

Daily Currency Update

The Australian dollar traded within a narrow range on Friday, holding onto gains won Thursday, consolidating its recovery back above US$0.65. Having pierced through US$0.6550 on Thursday after the USD DXY index hit is lowest level in over 3 years the AUD settled into a 50-point range bouncing between US$0.6510 and US$0.6560 closing the day a quarter percent lower at US$0.6530. Renewed trade threats prompted whippy price action with details of a US/China trade framework helping add a floor beneath the AUD while the abrupt termination of trade discussions between the US and Canada ensured uncertainty and risk aversion remained in play. The AUD outperformed the Canadian dollar after President Trump terminated trade talks in response to Canada’s plan to implement a digital services tax.

Trade and geo-political tensions continue to dominate direction while China PMI numbers and commentary from Fed policy makers dominate the macro ticket.

Key Movers

Price action across majors was somewhat subdued Friday as markets took a step back after the USD dollar index crashed to its lowest level since February 2022 on Thursday. The Canadian dollar was the days worst performer pitching lower after President Trump abruptly abandoned trade negotiations in response to the planned implementation of a digital services tax, a tax that would directly hit American companies. Equities and risk assets whipped about as headlines filtered through. Reports the US and China had agreed a new trade Framework helped bolster risk demand yet with the July 9 deadline approaching we expect trade uncertainties will continue to dominate direction. President Trump has indicated letters will be sent over the next 10 days to trading partner informing them of their new tariff status while treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggest an extension to Labor Day (September 1) is likely. With EU, Japanese and Indian trade delegations all expecting to broker deals before the deadline markets remain confident a sensible baseline tariff agenda will be achieved.

In other news the US senate voted on Saturday to advance President Trumps Big Beautiful Bill act, clearing the way for the vote to pass the Senate today. That said the weekend’s majority was razor thin and its passage is not guaranteed.

Our attentions remain affixed to US politics, geo-political tensions and trade headlines as the major movers to start the new week.

Expected Ranges

  • AUD/USD: 0.6430 - 0.6580 ▲
  • AUD/EUR: 0.5550 - 0.5620 ▲
  • GBP/AUD: 2.0750 - 2.1050 ▼
  • AUD/NZD: 1.0750 - 1.0850 ▲
  • AUD/CAD: 0.8900 - 0.9000 ▲

Written by

Matt Richardson

OFXpert

As a Senior Corporate Client Manager, Matt provides expertise in currency risk management to his clients, drawing from his 14 years of experience in foreign exchange. Matt has clients who he has been working with for over a decade, a testament to his knowledge and dedication in the field. Matt is also a regular contributor on Ausbiz, offering clear and precise updates on currency market trends, showcasing his ability to interpret complex financial data into actionable insights.