Home Daily Commentaries New Zealand dollar holds above US$0.61

New Zealand dollar holds above US$0.61

Daily Currency Update

The New Zealand dollar is slightly weaker this morning when valued against the Greenback currently trading at 0.6124 at time of writing. The Kiwi dollar weakened on Friday falling below 0.6150 and snapping the two-day winning streak during the early Asian. On the upside, resistance is at the 0.6150- 0.6170 zone, and above at the 0.6200 level. Last week on the data front the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER), Business Confidence aggregates revealed a further decline in business activity outlook surveys. NZIER noted that a full 35% of New Zealand firms expect the economic outlook to deteriorate on a seasonally-adjusted basis. Firm trading activity declined, with 28% of respondents noting a decline in business activity through the June quarter. The environment of higher interest rates and heightened uncertainty about the outlook has made businesses much more cautious about hiring and investment.  Looking ahead this week and on Wednesday the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to leave the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 5.5% at its next monetary policy meeting next week. The central bank will likely maintain a cautious stance amid evolving economic data. However, the growing speculation that the RBNZ might cut interest rates earlier than expected in November might weigh on the New Zealand dollar.  On Thursday Statistics New Zealand will release the Food Price Index (FPI).  Although food is among the most volatile consumer price components, this indicator garners some attention because New Zealand's major inflation data is released on a quarterly basis. Finally, on Friday BusinessNZ will release the Performance of Manufacturing Index.

Key Movers

In the US on Friday Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the US rose 206,000 in June, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday. This reading followed the 218,000 increase (revised from 272,000) recorded in May and came in above the market expectation of 190,000. The initial jobs report showed that the Unemployment Rate edged higher to 4.1% from 4%, while the Labor Force Participation Rate ticked up to 62.6% from 62.5%. Finally, wage inflation, as measured by the change in the Average Hourly Earnings, declined to 3.9% on a yearly basis from 4.1%, matching the market expectation.

In the UK Labour leader Keir Starmer has officially become the UK’s new prime minister with his party winning more than 400 of the 650 seats in the House of Commons the lower house of Britain’s parliament. The Conservative Party suffered a dramatic collapse after a tumultuous 14 years in power, which saw five different prime ministers run the country. It lost 250 seats over the course of a devastating night. The result marks a stunning reversal from the 2019 election when Labour, led by the veteran left-wing politician Jeremy Corbyn, suffered its worst electoral defeat in almost a century.


Expected Ranges

  • NZD/USD: 0.6050 - 0.6250 ▼
  • NZD/EUR: 0.5550 - 0.5750 ▼
  • GBP/NZD: 2.0750 - 2.0950 ▼
  • NZD/AUD: 1.0850 - 1.1050 ▲
  • NZD/CAD: 0.8250 - 0.8450 ▲

Written by

Brett Ottawa


Brett brings a wealth of experience, boasting more than 15 years in the foreign exchange market. He started his foreign exchange career with OFX more than a decade ago, as a private dealer catering to individual clients. He later transitioned to the corporate sector, assuming the position of Corporate Senior Relationship Manager. What truly excites Brett is the opportunity to engage with people, supporting their business growth and sharing in their successes.