Aussie dollar continues to hold above US$0.65
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Daily Currency Update
The Australian dollar is relatively unchanged again this morning when valued against the Greenback, currently trading at US$0.6533 at the time of writing. On the local data front yesterday, inflation has held steady for the second month in a row, as cheaper meat and seafood helped offset increases in rents and automotive fuel.The monthly index of consumer prices rose only 3.4% in the year to February, stabilising near the pace of the increases in January and December, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday. Economists had predicted February’s CPI would come in at 3.5%. Excluding volatile items such as fresh produce and fuel, inflation fell from 4.1% in January to 3.9% last month.
Holiday and accommodation prices continued to fall, offsetting price rises in other categories. The category’s prices fell 1.3% in the year to February, falling more slowly than the two previous months, reflecting boosts from Taylor Swift’s blockbuster Eras tour. The AUD has faced downward pressure following the release of Westpac's Consumer Confidence Index on Tuesday, which dipped 1.8% to 84.4 in March 2024 from February's 86.0, easing from 20-month highs.
Key Movers
The US dollar Index saw its second consecutive day of gains amid a risk-off sentiment, driven by anticipation surrounding the upcoming release of US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) scheduled for Friday. However, the decline in US Treasury yields may be attributed to the expectations surrounding the US Federal Reserve regarding potential rate cuts. This sentiment could limit the advances of the US dollar.On the data front, US durable goods orders increased by 1.4% in February, against the 1.3% expected and previous decline of 6.9%. US durable goods orders excluding defense rose by 2.2% in February, compared to the expected 1.1% and 7.9% previous decline. US Housing Price Index decreased MoM by 0.1% in January, against the December’s increase of 0.1%.
The Pound sterling fell to near 1.2600 in Wednesday’s early American session. The broader appeal remains weak as investors expect the Bank of England (BoE) will start reducing interest rates sooner than previously anticipated. The BoE said last week in its monetary policy statement that the central bank is not at a point where interest rates can be reduced. However, policymakers didn’t rule out the market’s view of two or three rate cuts this year.
Investors will keenly focus on the United States core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for February, published on Good Friday. The annual Core PCE is forecasted to have grown at a steady pace of 2.8%.
Daily Commentary will be on break for the long weekend from Friday, March 29th to Monday, April 1st and will resume Tuesday, April 2nd.
Expected Ranges
- AUD/USD: 0.6430 - 0.6630 ▲
- AUD/EUR: 0.5930 - 0.6130 ▼
- GBP/AUD: 1.9230 - 1.9430 ▼
- AUD/NZD: 1.0780 - 1.0980 ▲
- AUD/CAD: 0.8760 - 0.8960 ▼