US trade deficit falls amid shrinking imports
Daily Currency Update
The US trade deficit fell from 68.3 billion in May to 65.5 billion in June. A drop in the trade deficit implies that the US has imported less than it had previously in comparison to its exports. Overall, this is an indication that US businesses and consumers are spending less. This indication is in line with other data releases showing that higher interest rates have curbed American spending. Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker spoke this morning and stated, “Absent any alarming new data between now and mid-September, I believe we may be at the point where we can be patient and hold rates steady and let the monetary policy actions we have taken do their work.”Key Movers
In the European region today, Germany reports an inflation rate of 6.2%, down from 6.38% in June. This is a significant point as Germany is the largest economy in the Eurozone and could influence future rate hikes by the European Central Bank.The National Australian Bank reports a Business Confidence Index rating of 2, up from -1 in June. Above 0 on the Business Confidence Index implies improving conditions for Australian business while below 0 indicates a worsening industry.
China’s exports fell 14.5% in July compared to the same time last year. This marks the deepest decline in China’s exports since February 2020.
Unlike Canada’s neighbors to the south, the Canadian trade deficit has expanded by 1 billion from last month’s numbers. Exports have decreased by 2.2%. A large contributor to this drop was exports to the US which have declined 5.5% month-over-month. Both the US and Canada are struggling with higher interest rates domestically, but it also appears that both countries are struggling with international trade as well.
Expected Ranges
- EUR/USD: 1.09333 - 1.10111 ▼
- GBP/USD: 1.26840 - 1.27854 ▼
- AUD/USD: 0.64967 - 0.65760 ▼
- USD/CAD: 1.33574 - 1.35019 ▲