Home Daily Commentaries Canadian continues fall despite oil gains

Canadian continues fall despite oil gains

Tuesday 29 November, 2022

Daily Currency Update

The Canadian dollar continues its downward trend this morning as North American markets are headed towards a slightly lower opening to the session. The CAD is also showing a decoupling from oil prices as WTI is up over $78 a barrel this morning. This coming from news that OPEC+ may announce further cuts to production in an effort to support oil prices.  On the data front, the Canadian economy showed stronger than expected growth in Q3 coming up 2.8%, much higher than the economist consensus of 1.5%.

Key Movers

After a tumultuous day on Monday that saw the USD generally make gains, it is starting Tuesday up on Fed outlooks. In four separate speeches from different governors yesterday the Fed’s messaging was clearly hawkish. In a speech from St, Louis Fed President James Bullard it was reiterated “we’ve got a ways to go to get restrictive on policy.”  Key data today sees consumer confidence expected to fall from 102 to 100.  Markets are also looking ahead to tomorrow’s speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell followed by CPE data on Thursday. The euro held gains overnight as the ECB has begun to adopt a more hawkish tone.  Also, in overnights, the Chinese and Hong Kong Indices regained much of the losses from the previous session as Chinese police cracked down on protestors. This has brought some calm to the outlook on the activity coming from China. Oil is regaining helping commodity currencies after speculation is that OPEC+ might make further cuts to production quotas in order to keep prices elevated.

Expected Ranges

  • EUR/CAD: 1.3896 - 1.4061 ▼
  • GBP/CAD: 1.6101 - 1.6267 ▼
  • AUD/CAD: 0.8959 - 0.9108 ▲
  • USD/CAD: 1.3412 - 1.3546 ▲