The months leading up to an election often bring volatility to foreign exchange (FX) markets, but it doesn’t stop after the ballots are cast. Did you know that market volatility has a tendency to extend past election day, all the way to inauguration day? The period after a new president-elect is appointed and inauguration day, can significantly impact financial markets.
This transitional period has been coined as a ‘Lame Duck Session.’
This transitional phase can often bring heightened uncertainty as legislative decisions made during this time can influence currency values and market stability. In this blog, we will explore the relationship between lame duck sessions and FX volatility, examining historical impacts and providing risk management tools to help you or your business navigate these transitional periods effectively.
Lame Duck Session: This is a term used in the United States that refers to the session of Congress after the November election and before the new president-elect is inaugurated. This period can often bring volatility to markets due to a general air of uncertainty.
Why lame duck sessions matter
Lame duck sessions typically occur between November and January, immediately following the general elections in November, once the results are announced and a winner is declared. During this time, the outgoing members of Congress, who may not have been re-elected or are retiring, continue to hold their positions and have the authority to pass legislation.
Lame duck sessions can be highly significant to financial markets including the FX market because they often involve the passage of important legislation, budget approvals, and other critical decisions that can have lasting impacts. For example, the Federal Privacy Act passed during the 1974 lame duck session or the United States-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement finalised during the 2020 lame duck session.
Understanding the post-election season is crucial for those involved in financial markets as the decisions made during this period can lead to increased uncertainty and currency volatility.
OFXperts can help to closely monitor these sessions to help you anticipate potential market movements so you can adjust your strategies accordingly.
Volatility: Exchange rate volatility refers to the tendency for foreign currency to appreciate or depreciate in value and ultimately affects the profitability of a currency transfer overseas.
Prepare for post-election volatility with OFX’s
risk management tools
Create your FREE account
Historical impact of elections on FX markets
Elections have historically been periods of significant events for financial markets, particularly the forex market. The uncertainty surrounding election outcomes and the change of policies after elections conclude can lead to increased volatility. Here, we explore some historical instances where elections had a notable impact on FX markets.
- US Presidential Elections: The US presidential elections are among the most closely watched events globally due to the country’s significant influence on the world economy. For instance, the 2016 election, which resulted in Donald Trump’s victory, saw the US dollar initially plummet due to market uncertainty. However, it quickly rebounded as investors anticipated pro-business policies, leading to a period of US dollar strength.
- Brexit Referendum: Although not a traditional election, the 2016 Brexit referendum had a profound impact on FX markets. The unexpected decision for the UK to leave the European Union caused the British pound to drop sharply against major currencies. The pound’s volatility continued as negotiations and political developments unfolded over the following years.
- French Presidential Elections: The 2017 French presidential election was another significant event, particularly with the rise of populist candidates. The euro experienced volatility as markets reacted to the possibility of France exiting the EU under a populist government. Emmanuel Macron’s eventual victory brought relief to the markets, stabilising the euro.
- Emerging Markets Elections: Elections in emerging markets often lead to heightened FX volatility due to the perceived higher political risk. For example, the 2018 Brazilian presidential election saw the Brazilian real fluctuate significantly as investors reacted to the potential economic reforms promised by the candidates. Similarly, the 2019 Indian general election impacted the Indian rupee as markets speculated on the continuity of economic policies.
These examples help illustrate how elections and the transitional periods after an election conclude, sometimes called lame duck sessions, can lead to significant market reactions, driven by uncertainty. However, just because markets may fluctuate during this period doesn’t mean your international transfers need to take a hit too. Let’s explore OFX’s risk management tools to help you make the most of market movements during a lame duck session.
Using OFX’s hedging tools to save big
See how one Canadian-based produce buyer found hedging success with OFX’s Forward Contracts.
Risk management tools to combat market swings
Unexpected market movements during times of uncertainty can feel overwhelming, luckily our OFXperts always have your back. With a variety of risk management tools for your business or personal transfers, you can protect your money against forex swings.
Forward Contracts* are a useful hedging tool that allows you or your business to lock-in your exchange rate for up to 12 months. This means you will still be able to budget and plan ahead no matter what the uncertainty of post-election sessions bring.
Limit Orders** let you or your business target your ideal exchange rate. If it’s reached, OFX will help you get your money moving. Our OFXperts monitor the markets day and night to help you secure your target rate, even while you’re sleeping.
Currency Outlook is a monthly newsletter with OFXpert insights that helps keep you in the FX loop. Compiled by our treasury experts, this report inspects key currency shifts, global news, and political landscapes to forecast forex fluctuations.
24/7 OFXpert support so you are never alone in your forex transfers. Our OFXperts sit in offices around the globe ensuring you have access to real, human support regardless of when the market moves.
As the 2024 post-election season begins, we want you to be prepared with the knowledge and FX tools to combat whatever volatility may be lurking around the corner. Whether you have international business payments or personal foreign exchange transfers in the works, OFX’s risk management tools can help secure your transfers during this transition period. Feel free to reach out to an OFXpert to discuss what tools might be right for you.
**If you book a Limit Order, it may mean losing out if the market rate continues to move above your target rate. There is no guarantee that your desired rate will be reached. Once the order is triggered, the transfer is binding and cannot be cancelled.
Prepare for Market Volatility with an OFXpert
Make the most of market movements with OFX’s risk management tools and the valuable knowledge of our OFXperts, available 24/7.
IMPORTANT: The contents of this blog do not constitute financial advice and are provided for general information purposes only without taking into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any particular person. UKForex Limited (trading as “OFX”) and its affiliates make no recommendation as to the merits of any financial strategy or product referred to in the blog. OFX makes no warranty, express or implied, concerning the suitability, completeness, quality or exactness of the information and models provided in this blog.
