Home Daily Commentaries Aussie dollars rebounds back above US$0.65 after Fed chair issues dovish statement

Aussie dollars rebounds back above US$0.65 after Fed chair issues dovish statement

Daily Currency Update

The Australian dollar traded back above US$0.65 on Wednesday following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting and accompanying policy statement. With little of note on the domestic ticket, the AUD tracked sideways through the local session before pitching back above US$0.65 and toward intraday highs at US$0.6540 after Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell failed to match markets' Hawkish expectations, all but quashing calls for one final rate hike. With US rates and treasuries on the back foot, the AUD benefited, consolidating and settling near US$0.6520 leading into this morning’s opening.

Our attentions now turn to Australian trade data and March building approvals for direction through the local session while Bank of Japan minutes and Eurozone PMIs dominate the offshore docket ahead of tomorrow’s all-important US non-farm payroll print.

Key Movers

The US dollar opened lower this morning as markets reacted to the FOMC policy meeting and comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. As anticipated, committee members opted to leave rates on hold and proffered few changes in the official statement to that issued last month. While policymakers acknowledged the lack of progress toward the 2% target, the introduction of new language was largely in line with recent Fed commentary and had little market impact. Cue, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference. Markets were expecting a hawkish bias given the persistence of price pressures and wage inflation yet Fed Chair, Powell offered a dovish statement suggesting the Fed was looking for reasons to cut rates and it was “unlikely the next policy move will be a hike”. US treasury yields and rates fell, dragging the USD lower. The Euro has punched back above 1.07, while sterling trades above 1.25 and the Yen is markedly stronger following further suspected intervention from the Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan. Following Powell’s press conference, the USD fell from 157.60 to 153 before settling around 155. Interestingly and unlike Monday’s suspected intervention following the move to 160 this recent adjustment came during a period of relative stability suggesting “excessive market movements” may not be the sole catalyst for intervention. Instead, it looks like currency officials may adopt a more opportunistic approach to intervention, keeping markets on edge.

Our attentions now turn to the Bank of Japan's March meeting minutes and Eurozone PMIs for April as the headline items on the docket through Thursday.

Expected Ranges

  • AUD/USD: 0.6450 - 0.6580 ▲
  • AUD/EUR: 0.6020 - 0.6120 ▲
  • GBP/AUD: 1.9100 - 1.9400 ▼
  • AUD/NZD: 1.0950 - 1.1050 ▲
  • AUD/CAD: 0.8900 - 0.9000 ▲

Written by

Matt Richardson

OFXpert

As a Senior Corporate Client Manager, Matt provides expertise in currency risk management to his clients, drawing from his 14 years of experience in foreign exchange. Matt has clients who he has been working with for over a decade, a testament to his knowledge and dedication in the field. Matt is also a regular contributor on Ausbiz, offering clear and precise updates on currency market trends, showcasing his ability to interpret complex financial data into actionable insights.