NZD closes in on break above US$0.6150 as US dollar weakness extended
Daily Currency Update
The New Zealand dollar advance continued through trade on Tuesday, consolidating a break above US$0.61 amid a fall in US treasury yields and firming speculation the Fed has reached the end of its tightening cycle. The NZD tracked higher overnight after Fed and Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member Christopher Waller helped firm bets rates have peaked. Waller suggested, “policy is currently well positioned to slow the economy and get inflation back to 2%.” While he did stop short of confirming the Fed will end its program of rate hikes, he did hint at the FOMC being able to lower rates if inflation continues to cool. The promise of lower Fed interest rates forced US treasuries lower, with the majority of the correction loaded into the short end of the curve, allowing equities and risk-led assets to extend gains. The NZD extended toward US$0.6150 falling just short and marking fresh highs at US$0.6145 before meeting resistance. With US dollar weakness the primary driver behind the move gains against other majors were muted as our attentions turned to the RBNZ monetary policy decision and statement. We expect rates will be unchanged at 5.5% as domestic economic activity and inflation data have softened since the last rate hike in May. We expect a neutral tone with policy makers affirming commitment to bringing down inflation.Key Movers
US dollar weakness dominated direction through trade on Tuesday as US rates fell and equities rallied following comments from Fed officials. Markets ignored improved consumer confidence data, instead focusing on comments from respected Fed member and St Louis Fed President Christopher Waller. Waller intonated that while he could not be sure the Fed had done enough to end inflation he was confident that sustained cooling in inflation pressures over the coming 3-6 months should allow the Fed to lower policy rates. The promise of a lower US cash rate helped extend the correction in 2 and 10-year rates and drive the dollar lower. With the DXY indeed giving up another four-tenths of a percent the euro was able to punch through US$1.10, while the GBP broke through US$1.27 and the yen forced the dollar back below ¥148 and toward intraday lows at ¥147.60.Our attention now turns to German CPI data and US trade data for direction. With recent USD weakness doing little to erode USD long positions there is still further potential for extended USD downside risk as speculators and investors rebalance positions toward neutral. Fed policy guidance and direction will prove key in shaping this narrative.
Expected Ranges
- NZD/USD: 0.6020 - 0.6180 ▲
- NZD/EUR: 0.5480 - 0.5620 ▲
- GBP/NZD: 2.0500 - 2.0800 ▼
- NZD/AUD: 0.9180 - 0.9280 ▲
- NZD/CAD: 0.8250 - 0.8380 ▲