Home Daily Commentaries DXY stays flat amid lower-than-expected retail sales data

DXY stays flat amid lower-than-expected retail sales data

Daily Currency Update

The US dollar index (DXY) trades mostly flat today after the release of US retail sales data. Retail sales data increased only 0.2% month-over-month versus the expected 0.5% jump. Although this figure has missed analysts’ forecasts, spending has nonetheless increased month-over-month. US industrial production reports its first annual decline in 28 months, a drop of 0.5% month-over-month. Overall, recent data out of the US has shown the economy feeling the effects of higher interest rates. This puts pressure on the Federal Reserve to pump the brakes regarding further interest hikes.

Key Movers

The Japan Tertiary Industry Index, a measure of industrial activities of all business categories in the tertiary industry, showed a 1.2% rise month-over-month, outperforming expectations of a 0.4% increase. This is a very positive reading for the Japanese economy as it depicts industrial growth.

In Hong Kong news, unemployment reports show a jobless rate of 2.9%. This is a four-year low for unemployment rates in Hong Kong and shows that the economy seems to be on the road to recovery after the devastating effects of COVID-19.

The most prominent piece of news out of Canada today is the release of the Canadian Consumer price index (CPI) this morning. Canadian CPI came in at 2.8% versus the expected 3.0%. Last month’s CPI was at 3.0% as well, this was a key reading given the latest Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate hike. These numbers show that Canadian citizens are feeling the effects of higher interest rates. A lower-than-expected CPI reading is a good sign that the BoC may slow rate hikes in their next policy meeting. It is also important to consider that the CPI reading excluding mortgage interest, which is up 30.1% in June, is only at 2.0%. This is well within the target inflation rate put forth by the BoC.

Expected Ranges

  • EUR/USD: 1.12168 - 1.12757 ▼
  • GBP/USD: 1.30631 - 1.31258 ▲
  • AUD/USD: 0.67890 - 0.68372 ▼
  • USD/CAD: 1.31833 - 1.32432 ▲