Home Daily Commentaries GBP/USD hits eight month high after US jobs data

GBP/USD hits eight month high after US jobs data

Jake Trask
Written by
Jake Trask

Jake Trask

OFXpert

Based in London, Jake boasts a rich and extensive career in the foreign exchange industry, spanning 15 years.

| Monday 11 March, 2024

Daily Currency Update

GBP/USD touched its highest level since July 2023 on Friday as the dollar was sold off after the latest US jobs data. Friday's monthly Non-Farm Payrolls figure came in at 275k v an estimate of around 200k however it was other components within the report that led to the dollar drop. The previous months stellar 353k was revised significantly lower to 229k and the unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked up to 3.9% when no move from 3.7% had been expected. Also, and likely crucial to the GBP/USD rally was wage growth slowing considerably from 0.5% to 0.1% m/m. Inflation-related data like wage growth is being closely eyed at present and it appears this miss helped GBP/USD get as high as 1.2893 in the aftermath of the release. Markets are expecting a rate cut from the States in June and odds on this went up to 75% on the back of these numbers. It was a quiet end to the week from the UK with no data of note seen. We do have a couple of key releases to watch out for this week, however. Tomorrow sees the latest wage and unemployment figures and Wednesday sees growth data. GBP/USD is currently at 1.2840. GBP/EUR also remains elevated at 1.1740 after touching 1.1760 before close of play on Friday.

Key Movers

There is a slew of key US data scheduled for release this week. The most important could be tomorrow's monthly CPI print which is expected to hold at 3.1% y/y. We also have Retail Sales and PPI numbers on Thursday and Friday bringing the latest Empire State Manufacturing Index and the University of Michigan Prelim Consumer Sentiment Survey. From the Eurozone, it is tranquil with few events of note. Last week the European Central Bank seemed to line up a June cut at its latest interest rate decision. This pushback on an April cut and the US above jobs data helped the EUR/USD push up above 1.09 where it remains. It currently sits at 1.0940.

Expected Ranges

  • GBP/USD: - ▲
  • GBP/EUR: - ▲
  • GBP/AUD: - ▲
  • EUR/USD: - ▲

Written by

Jake Trask

OFXpert

As a Senior Corporate Client Manager, Jake and his team manage a diverse portfolio of 250 businesses, offering tailored solutions to meet their varied foreign exchange needs. He enjoys unravelling the complexities of foreign exchange dynamics, constantly striving to provide clients with the most informed insights and strategies to navigate these fluctuations successfully.