Daily Currency Update
GBP/USD has fallen back under 1.24 this morning on the back of an unexpected drop in UK Retail Sales in October. After contracting -1.1% in September a rebound of around 0.5% m/m was predicted by markets however the release from the Office of National Statistics showed a further fall of -0.3%. It appears that high inflation and borrowing costs are making consumers rein in spending more and more adding weight to the argument that the economy could fall into recession in the new year. After a ton of data releases throughout the week it's a quiet Friday with nothing of note from the UK or indeed the Eurozone or the US. GBP/USD currently sits around 1.2380 with GBP/EUR testing its lowest level in six months at 1.1420.
Key Movers
There was a mixed data results from the US yesterday with worse than expected Unemployment Claims and Industrial Production figures being offset by a slightly better Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. EUR/USD briefly made another play for the 1.09 level yesterday before being dragged lower by the Industrial Production print. The euro has made significant gains over the past few days the back of the expectation that this week’s soft US inflation numbers mean the US Federal Reserve will no longer need to need to raise interest rates. EUR/USD started the week around 1.0680 and is now around 1.0850.
Expected Ranges
- GBP/USD: 1.2345 - 1.2480 ▼
- GBP/EUR: 1.1400 - 1.1500 ▼
- GBP/AUD: 1.9080 - 1.9220 ▼
- EUR/USD: 1.0785 - 1.0900 ▲