Daily Currency Update
The Kiwi dollar is slightly stronger this morning when valued against the Greenback. The New Zealand Dollar climbed 0.36% against the US Dollar yesterday with buyers reclaiming the 0.6000 figure courtesy of mixed data in the United States. The NZD/USD pair traveled from the day’s low of 0.5995 and reached a high of 0.6054 before reversing toward current exchange rates of 0.6022 at time of writing. In New Zealand yesterday Overseas visitor arrivals were 2.77 million in the September 2023 year, up 2.08 million from the September 2022 year. The biggest changes were in arrivals from Australia (up 787,000 to 1.26 million). Overseas visitor arrivals were 224,900 in the September 2023 month, up 73,600 from the September 2022 month. The biggest changes were in arrivals from China (up 17,200). In other news Chinese economic data improved risk appetite and underpinned the Kiwi Dollar. China’s Industrial Production rose 4.6% YoY, above estimates and last month’s readings, while Retail Sales soared 7.6% YoY, exceeding forecasts of 7% and above September’s 5.5%. On the local data front for the rest of this week and on Friday we will see the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) which is a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when manufacturers pay more for goods the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer.
Key Movers
This week the US economic calendar has featured inflation reports from the consumer and producer side, with both readings missing estimates. The US inflation report for October indicated that the headline inflation grew at the slowest growth in more than two years. The annual headline CPI rose by 3.2%, softened from estimates of 3.3% and the former reading of 3.7%. US Retail Sales for October came in above expectations, but still saw some declines to print at -0.1% against the forecast -0.3%, and September's read was revised upwards from 0.7% to 0.9%. US Producer Price Index (PPI) ex Food & Energy for the year into October also missed expectations slightly, printing at 2.4% against the street's expected hold at 2.7%. The data sparked speculations the Fed could have ended its tightening cycle. Interest rate futures traders linked to federal fund rates have priced in 88 basis points of rate cuts towards the end of 2024, spurring a drop in US Treasury bond yields. Other data revealed by the Department of Commerce, Retail Sales in the US disappointed analysts, contracted -0.1% MoM in October, less than the -0.3% consensus. Ahead today the US economic calendar will feature unemployment claims, Industrial Production, and Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers.
Expected Ranges
- NZD/USD: 0.5920 - 0.6120 ▲
- NZD/EUR: 0.5450 - 0.5640 ▲
- GBP/NZD: 2.0500 - 2.0700 ▼
- NZD/AUD: 1.0700 - 1.0900 ▼
- NZD/CAD: 0.8140 - 0.8340 ▼