Daily Currency Update
GBP/EUR dipped to its lowest level in six months on Friday touching 1.1421. The pair had traded between 1.15 and 1.1750 for most of the summer however has slipped lower over recent weeks as market sentiment regarding the pound sours. Although we may be unlikely to see a big sell-off in GBP recent data has pointed to an economy that is at best flatlining with the first estimate of third-quarter GDP showing exactly this when it was released on Friday morning. Zero growth was seen for the July - Sept period compared to the three months prior. This was actually better than the -0.1% contraction that was expected however the pound fell in the aftermath of the print. GBP/USD also dropped and briefly traded under 1.22 before paring its losses. Some recent dollar weakness has supported GBP/USD as the consensus grows that the US Federal Reserve has now finished with its interest rate hiking cycle. How long rates are held before being cut will now be the area of interest from The Fed as well as the Bank of England and the European Central Bank. This week sees plenty of top-tier data including UK inflation and Retail Sales m/m which are due for release on Wednesday and Friday morning respectively. GBP/EUR is currently around 1.1450 with GBP/USD at 1.2240.
Key Movers
European Central Bank President, Christine Lagarde spoke on Friday where she stated that she didn't expect interest rates to be cut for at least "the next couple of quarters." The interview with the Financial Times echoed recent comments from Bank of England Governor, Andrew Bailey who last week said it was too early to discuss cutting rates saying they needed to be held at their current restrictive levels for "an extended period." There is little data of note from the Eurozone this week however there is a raft of releases scheduled from the US. This week's big event is tomorrow's US inflation reading with the Consumer Price Index expected to fall to 3.3% y/y from its current 3.7%. We also have Retail Sales for October due on Wednesday lunchtime. EUR/USD is towards the higher end of its recent range with the pair currently just under 1.07.
Expected Ranges
- GBP/USD: 1.2185 - 1.2315 ▼
- GBP/EUR: 1.1420 - 1.1535 ▼
- GBP/AUD: 1.9135 - 1.9300 ▼
- EUR/USD: 1.0600 - 1.0750 ▲