Home Daily Commentaries Canadian consumer pricing data comes in lower than expected

Canadian consumer pricing data comes in lower than expected

Daily Currency Update

The Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) month-over-month was released at 0.1% which was lower than expected. The median CPI year-over-year was also lower than expected at 3.8% versus 4%. The yearly trimmed CPI, which excludes the most volatile 40% of items, was also slightly lower than expected at 3.7%. This lower CPI data across the board is stemming from lower prices for some travel-related services as well as durable goods and groceries. This dip in CPI is positive for the average Canadian consumer but caused a decrease in CAD/USD and CAD/EUR rates.

Key Movers

The US dollar index (DXY) increased this morning, reaching the 106.42 region. Month-over-month retail sales data was released at 0.7%, much stronger than the expected value causing the USD to jump. Core retail sales data month-over-month, which does not include auto sales, was at 0.6%. This was also higher than expected, causing a further positive lift for the USD. Month-over-month industrial production was 0.3% versus the expected 0% change. All three positive data releases drove the DXY to the current level.

The Israel-Hamas conflict has caused Israeli New Shekel, or ILS, to spiral to an 8-year low. This severe dip rises amid fears of further economic effects as a result of continued conflict.

The Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) Indicator of Economic Sentiment, a survey of about 300 German institutional investors and analysts for Germany, recorded an increase. This is good news for the EUR and the EUR/USD pair rate was up.

Average earnings including bonuses were released from the UK at 8.1%. This is lower than expected, which seemingly contributed to the GBP/USD rate decrease as the USD rose.

Expected Ranges

  • EUR/CAD: 1.4349 - 1.4451 ▲
  • GBP/CAD: 1.6572 - 1.6636 ▼
  • AUD/CAD: 0.8613 - 0.8687 ▲
  • USD/CAD: 1.3602 - 1.3703 ▲