Home Daily Commentaries New Zealand dollar trades below US$0.62

New Zealand dollar trades below US$0.62

Daily Currency Update

The Kiwi dollar is slightly weaker this morning when valued against the Greenback. and retreated from a daily high of US$0.6272 and then fell below US$0.6200. In that sense, the USD gained traction following robust high-tier economic data while investors assess the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) decision. The NZD is stronger against the EUR and GBP but weaker against JPY, down to 86.2. From a technical perspective, the NZD/USD short-term outlook turned bearish with resistance levels at 0.6227 (20-day SMA), 0.6217 (200-day SMA), and 0.61978 (100-day SMA). While support can be found at 0.6190, 0.6170, and 0.6150. Strength in the Kiwi dollar has been propelled by less-hawkish monetary policy by the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced earlier this week, after the Fed hiked interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.25-5.50%. Investors are taking July’s interest rate as the last one in the current tightening spell.

On the data front today there are no scheduled releases. All eyes will now turn to Monday's ANZ Business Confidence. A survey of about 1,500-2,000 businesses which asks respondents to rate the relative 12-month economic outlook, which is a leading indicator of the economic health of businesses, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment. On Wednesday we will see the Unemployment Rate decision by Statistics New Zealand.

Key Movers

The European Central Bank raised interest rates for the ninth straight time in its yearlong campaign to stamp out painfully high inflation, coming as worries about recession fuel speculation that this rate rise could be its last. The ECB delivered the well-anticipated 25bps hike that takes the deposit rate to 3.75%, a record high for the euro area. ECB President Christine Lagarde had all but promised the quarter-percentage point increase, putting the focus at her post-meeting news conference on whether the bank will raise rates again at its September meeting or hold off after a record series of rate hikes. “Inflation continues to decline but is still expected to remain too high for too long,” the bank said in a statement. It added that it would keep rates high enough to restrict economic activity “for as long as necessary” to bring down inflation. The gold market is not seeing much reaction to the widely anticipated move from the ECB. August gold futures last traded at $1,977.20 an ounce, up 0.36% on the day.

Expected Ranges

  • NZD/USD: 0.6070 - 0.6270 ▼
  • NZD/EUR: 0.5500 - 0.5700 ▼
  • GBP/NZD: 2.0550 - 2.0750 ▲
  • NZD/AUD: 1.0750 - 1.0950 ▼
  • NZD/CAD: 0.8050 - 0.8250 ▲