Home Daily Commentaries Aussie dollar holds above US$0.67

Aussie dollar holds above US$0.67

Daily Currency Update

The Australian dollar is slightly weaker this morning when valued against the Greenback, after the release of better-than-expected US GDP data for the second quarter reveals the US economy grew at a faster 2.4% clip than either expectations at 1.8% had predicted, or was the case in the previous quarter (2.0%). Along with an unexpected jump in Durable Goods Orders of 4.7%, stronger-than-forecast labor market data and lower-than-forecast GDP price index, the data suggests the economy is improving. The Aussie dollar rose above US$0.6820 yesterday afternoon and has since fallen over a full cent to just above US$0.67, seeing NZD/AUD push back up through 0.92.

On the local data front yesterday the Australian Bureau of Statistics released the quarterly Import Price Index, which measures the change in the price of goods purchased by importers. Export price index fell 8.5% this quarter and 11.2% through the year, while Import price index fell 0.8% this quarter and 0.3% through the year. The main contributors to the fall were coal, coke and briquettes (-20.6%), driven by lower demand for both thermal and metallurgical coal due to the rapid easing of global supply constraints amid falling demand of gas, natural and manufactured (-20.9%), driven by price falls in oil-linked contract and high European inventories placing further downward pressure on spot prices. Looking ahead today and we will see the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI), a leading indicator of consumer inflation and monthly Retail Sales figures, which is the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

Key Movers

The European Central Bank raised interest rates for the ninth straight time in its yearlong campaign to stamp out painfully high inflation, coming as worries about recession fuel speculation that this rate rise could be its last. The ECB delivered the well-anticipated 25bps hike that takes the deposit rate to 3.75%, a record high for the euro area. ECB President Christine Lagarde had all but promised the quarter-percentage point increase, putting the focus at her post-meeting news conference on whether the bank will raise rates again at its September meeting or hold off after a record series of rate hikes. “Inflation continues to decline but is still expected to remain too high for too long,” the bank said in a statement. It added that it would keep rates high enough to restrict economic activity “for as long as necessary” to bring down inflation. The gold market is not seeing much reaction to the widely anticipated move from the ECB. August gold futures last traded at $1,977.20 an ounce, up 0.36% on the day.

Expected Ranges

  • AUD/USD: 0.6600 - 0.6800 ▼
  • AUD/EUR: 0.6000 - 0.6200 ▼
  • GBP/AUD: 1.8950 - 1.9150 ▲
  • AUD/NZD: 1.0750 - 1.0950 ▲
  • AUD/CAD: 0.8750 - 0.8950 ▼