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US Federal Reserve conscious surrounding trade tensions

Daily Currency Update

Escalations in the 10-month US-China trade war are weighing on US consumer and investor confidence, as four Federal Reserve policymakers pointed out on Thursday. Uncertainties surrounding the terms of trade between the world’s two largest economies have left businesses unable to forecast for the future effectively and could threaten economic growth in the US. Additionally, Fed policymakers are unable to make any definitive decisions regarding the future of US interest rate hikes. The Trump administration unveiled a $16 billion farm aid package to offset losses from trade war uncertainty.
On Thursday, President Trump predicted a swift end to the trade war despite the lack of high-level talks scheduled between the two economic heavyweights since the last round of negotiations in Washington two weeks ago. Trump also suggested that his administration’s blacklisting of Chinese telecom giant Huawei could be used as a vital bargaining chip for the US. Investor’s look towards U.S. durable goods orders, expected at 0.1 percent.
On the agenda today, the UK releases Retail Sales, and US Core Durable Goods orders closes off the week.

Key Movers

Theresa May has just announced the date of her resignation as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom to be June 7, 2019. The race for her successor to be chosen is likely to be on June 10th, after President Trump’s next visit to the U.K. on June 3rd. News from Downing Street suggests that foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt has encouraged May to kill off her Brexit bill, in another blow to her authority as PM. In contrast, however, May has indicated that she is willing to modify her most recent Brexit deal.

Expected Ranges

  • EUR/USD: 1.1177 - 1.1205 ▲
  • GBP/USD: 1.2647 - 1.2718 ▲
  • CAD/USD: 1.3422 - 1.3490 ▼
  • AUD/USD: 0.6881 - 0.6917 ▲
  • NZD/USD: 0.6512 - 0.6552 ▲