Home Daily Commentaries Bears control AUD direction

Bears control AUD direction

Friday 8 February, 2019

Daily Currency Update

The Australian Dollar moved within a tight range of 30-pips on Thursday against the Greenback following the huge sell-off that took place on Wednesday with the RBA’s perceived shift to a more neutral stance. The Aussie did touch a low of 0.7089 and at the time of writing is just hovering around the 71c mark. Yesterday’s local economic data had little impact, the AiG performance of construction index recovered from a near six-year low of 42.6 in December to 43.1 in January, although it continues to sit well below 50 signalling expansion. The NAB quarterly survey showed confidence fell from 3 in the September quarter to 1 in the December quarter. There were no major surprises in the survey given the weakness in the monthly survey in December.

On the technical front, a break through 0.7100, could see further moves down to 0.7076 and 0.7040. Markets remain bearish as we continue to wait on developments from US-China trade talks in Beijing next week and outside of this, the Quarterly Wage Price Index due Feb 20th remains the next hurdle in determining longer ranges. Prolonged US china uncertainty and an absence of upward wage pressures could force a bearish trend to continue and prompt a break below 0.70.

Looking ahead the RBA is due to release its monthly Monetary Policy Statement.

Key Movers

The New Zealand Dollar was immediately sold off yesterday morning on open following the release of disappointing employment figures. Dropping to two-week lows post news, the Kiwi dropped 80 pips from 0.6830 to 0.6750 by mid-morning. The unemployment rate rose from 3.9% to 4.3% in the December quarter of 2018 with the number of unemployed rising by 10,000 jobs. Wage Growth continued to disappoint the local economy as the labour index rose by 0.5% for Q4 2018 and 1.9% y/y.

The results opened the door for the RBNZ to potentially cut rates in the future if wage inflation continues to flatline and labour markets remain subdued.

The NZD/USD continued its path lower before steadying in offshore markets overnight despite recovering to 0.6770 in the North American session. With little domestically today on the macroeconomic front, the Kiwi could continue to see pressure in the current risk off environment.

The New Zealand Dollar opens this morning at 0.6748.

The Great British Pound moved higher through trade on Thursday edging toward 1.30 on renewed hopes Britain will strike an agreeable divorce deal with her European counterparts. Sterling faced early pressure and moved toward intraday and two-week lows at 1.2858 in the wake of the Bank of England’s monetary policy decision and accompanying market statement. The Bank cuts is forecast for growth, citing the worst pace of expansion in 10 years, blaming Brexit vagaries and instabilities, affirming rates will remain on hold until a clear path to separation is complete.

Having lost half a percent in the immediate aftermath Sterling found support as investors dove deeper into the policy decision. The BoE was largely balanced in its assessments and while growth remains a concern it intimated at raising rates once a deal is struck, holding onto expectations the economy will rebound once the period of uncertainty has passed. Further support came with the promise of additional stimulus should the deadline arrive, and no deal has been reached.

Attentions now turn back to ongoing Brexit discussion as Prime Minister May pleads with EU negotiators to work with her in amending the current deal to ensure its passage through UK parliament. EU official appear steadfast in their resolve, adamant no new deal will be negotiated and subsequently increasing the likelihood the planned vote to approve the exit strategy on February 13 will be rejected forcing UK lawmakers to again consider an extension to article 50. We are again looking for volatility on headline news with upside gains limited to 1.31 unless a deal is struck.

Thursday saw Wall Street suffer heavy losses as equity markets fell over 1% and the 10-year treasury yield fell nearly 2%, evidencing investor’s reluctance to hold risk assets. The USD index posted modest gains, with the catalyst for the risk off environment being cautious remarks from European and British Central banks alongside disappointing macro data out of Germany. This saw the Euro sold off, pushing the greenback and JPY higher on the day.

USD/JPY traded sideways as EUR/USD fell to fresh 2 week lows of 1.1324 during European trade however did trim most of these losses during the US session. GBP/USD also fell to its lowest level in three weeks to 1.2853 before rebounding.

EUR/USD supports are seen at 1.1315 before 1.1280 with resistance evident at 1.1375 and 1.1400. GBP/USD is also well supported around the 1.2880 handle however moves beyond psychological resistance at 1.3000 are expected to catch resistance.

The Euro has continued its slow decline for the week, opening this morning at 1.1338 after some negative news from the European Commission. Adding fuel to the fire, global risk sentiments have turned with a distinct risk-off tone enveloping markets after a few reminders this week of weaker global growth. President’s Trump and Xi, may not be able to meet before March 1st.

The Euro was one of the currencies that added to global anxieties in overnight trading with the European Commission cutting its GDP growth forecasts. Growth this year is now expected to be 1.3% (down from 1.9%) and next year 1.6% (down from 1.9%). Almost by design, industrial production numbers in Germany were released with the result falling more than expected at -3.9% year on year for December. Spain’s industrial product came in even poorer at -6.2% year on year.

To close out the week the Euro turns to more Industrial Production numbers from France and Italy for direction.

Thursday’s session saw the Canadian dollar weaken for the 4th consecutive day when valued against the greenback. USD/CAD intraday lows of 1.3317 represent its weakest level in nearly two weeks as weakness in oil prices and fears of global economic slowdown weigh on the Loonie ahead of Friday’s key jobs report.

Oil prices fell 2.5% on the day forcing the CAD lower across the board. Bank of Canada officials highlighted that a lower CAD will help the domestic economy through a temporary economic slowdown resultant from housing market weakness and US trade policies which are constraining business investment.

The January employment report is due out of the domestic economy today. Given Wednesdays Ivey Purchasing Managers Index data exhibited a decline, traders will be watching this read closely to see how the labour market is tracking considering the slowdown.

Taking at technical approach, USD/CAD seems relatively well supported at 1.3300 on the downside. Expect moves through this level to meet catch further support on approach to 1.3270 and 1.3240 respectively. On the topside, immediate resistance is evident at 1.3330 before 1.3360.

Expected Ranges

  • AUD/NZD: 1.0420 - 1.0580 ▲
  • GBP/AUD: 1.7950 - 1.8350 ▲
  • AUD/USD: 0.7080 - 0.7230 ▼
  • AUD/EUR: 0.6210 - 0.6350 ▲
  • AUD/CAD: 0.9320 - 0.9520 ▲