Australian dollar under pressure despite strategic minerals deal with the US
Daily Currency Update
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is underperforming on Tuesday, with the AUD/USD pair falling over 0.5% to hover near the US$0.6480 mark during the European trading session. This decline comes despite a significant diplomatic and economic milestone: a new bilateral trade agreement on critical minerals between the United States and Australia. Earlier in the day, officials from both nations signed a landmark deal aimed at bolstering cooperation in the supply and development of critical minerals, which are essential for clean energy technologies, electric vehicles, and various defense applications. The agreement is being hailed as a strategic move to deepen economic ties between the two allies and reinforce shared priorities around supply chain security and sustainability. Market participants, however, appear largely unmoved by the deal in the short term, focusing instead on broader macroeconomic factors that continue to weigh on the AUD. The Australian Dollar is lagging behind most of its G10 peers amid risk-off sentiment, softer commodity prices, and a relatively dovish outlook from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) compared to the US Federal Reserve. The US-Australia critical minerals agreement is also being viewed within the geopolitical context as part of Washington’s ongoing effort to reduce its reliance on China for rare earth elements—materials that are vital to a range of high-tech industries. While the deal may have long-term implications for trade flows and investment in the resource sector, its immediate impact on the currency markets appears muted. Looking ahead, traders will be closely watching US economic data and comments from Fed officials for further direction, as interest rate differentials remain a key driver for the AUD/USD pair.Key Movers
Gold prices plunged more than 5.5% on Tuesday, marking the metal’s steepest one-day decline since August 2020, as investors appeared to lock in profits ahead of key US inflation data. Spot gold (XAU/USD) fell sharply to around $4,114, retreating from a daily high of $4,375 and just a day after hitting a record peak of $4,380. The selloff comes amid a broader recovery in the US Dollar, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) climbing 0.36% to 98.94. The stronger greenback has made gold more expensive for foreign buyers, adding to downward pressure on prices. Traders are positioning cautiously ahead of the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, due for release on October 24. The data is expected to offer fresh clues on inflation trends and the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves. Market expectations have shifted slightly toward continued policy easing by the Fed at its final two meetings of the year, especially after Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged signs of a weakening labor market in a speech last week. In addition to the CPI release, investors are also closely watching the upcoming Fed policy meeting next week, which could further shape the outlook for interest rates and precious metals.The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) surged to a new all-time intraday high on Tuesday, briefly breaking above the 47,000 mark and reaching 47,126, as a wave of strong corporate earnings ignited a broad-based rally—particularly among traditional “old economy” stocks. Investors piled into companies tied to manufacturing, industrials, energy, and consumer goods—sectors often overshadowed by the high-growth technology and information services names that dominate broader market indices. The rally comes as several blue-chip firms reported quarterly earnings well above Wall Street expectations, reinforcing investor confidence in the resilience of the U.S. economy despite ongoing global headwinds. The outperformance of these legacy sectors reflects a broader market shift toward value-oriented stocks amid growing speculation that interest rates may have peaked. With inflation showing signs of cooling and the Federal Reserve signaling a more cautious approach to further rate hikes, investors are seeking exposure to companies with strong balance sheets, consistent dividends, and tangible outputs. Analysts also noted that the Dow’s surge comes at a time when markets are digesting a mixed bag of macroeconomic data, including softening labor market indicators and moderating inflation, which could support a more accommodative Fed stance heading into 2026. The Dow’s milestone reinforces a narrative of renewed investor interest in economically sensitive and cyclical names—many of which had lagged during the tech-driven bull runs of recent years. With earnings season in full swing, market participants will be closely watching whether this rally in industrial and consumer-heavy stocks has legs, or if it signals a broader sector rotation in progress.
Expected Ranges
- AUD/USD: 0.6400 - 0.6600 ▼
- AUD/EUR: 0.5500 - 0.5700 ▼
- GBP/AUD: 2.0500 - 2.0700 ▲
- AUD/NZD: 1.1200 - 1.1400 ▲
- AUD/CAD: 0.9000 - 0.9200 ▼