Home Daily Commentaries New Zealand Dollar recovers slightly amid US government shutdown concerns and RBNZ outlook

New Zealand Dollar recovers slightly amid US government shutdown concerns and RBNZ outlook

Daily Currency Update

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) pared some of its recent losses on Monday, climbing back to just below the 0.5800 level after finding support around 0.5755 on Friday. The modest rebound comes as the US dollar (USD) remains under pressure due to mounting fears of a potential US government shutdown. Investor sentiment toward the US dollar has weakened amid growing concerns that the US administration may be unable to secure funding to keep the government operational beyond Tuesday, which marks the end of the 2025 fiscal year. This uncertainty has spurred a broad-based sell-off in the USD, providing a supportive backdrop for the Kiwi. Despite this short-term lift, the New Zealand dollar continues to face downward pressure within a broader bearish trend. Market participants remain cautious, anticipating further monetary easing from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) as it seeks to support a slowing economy. Adding to the market’s focus on the RBNZ, the central bank recently announced that Dr. Anna Brennan, currently Deputy Governor of the Swedish Central Bank, will assume the role of Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand starting December 1. While Dr. Brennan’s appointment signals continuity in the RBNZ’s policy approach, the possibility of a rate cut before her tenure begins remains on the table as the bank navigates persistent economic challenges. As the week unfolds, traders will be closely monitoring developments in US fiscal policy alongside any fresh signals from the RBNZ to better assess the New Zealand dollar’s near-term direction.

Key Movers

The US dollar weakened on Monday as investors grew increasingly cautious ahead of a critical funding deadline, with just days remaining before the government faces a potential shutdown on October 1. Heightened political uncertainty has intensified market volatility, as stakeholders await the outcome of last-minute negotiations aimed at averting a lapse in government funding. In a bid to resolve the impasse, US President Donald Trump convened a high-stakes meeting at the White House on Monday, bringing together political leaders for what was described as a final effort to strike a deal. The White House emphasized that the President is giving Democrats “one last chance to be reasonable” regarding the passage of a short-term continuing resolution to keep government operations funded. Meanwhile, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries responded by signaling that Democrats remain open to compromise but drew a firm line against any cuts to essential healthcare programs. The debate underscores the broader ideological divide between parties, complicating efforts to secure bipartisan agreement. On the other side of the aisle, Republicans have insisted that the Senate must act swiftly on the stopgap funding bill already passed by the House of Representatives. With time running out, both parties face mounting pressure to reach a consensus and prevent the potentially damaging economic and political consequences of a government shutdown. The uncertainty surrounding these developments has contributed to broad US Dollar softness in global markets, as investors weigh the risks associated with a shutdown against the backdrop of an already fragile economic environment.

Expected Ranges

  • NZD/USD: 0.5700 - 0.5900 ▲
  • NZD/EUR: 0.4800 - 0.5000 ▲
  • GBP/NZD: 2.3200 - 2.3400 ▼
  • NZD/AUD: 1.1250 - 1.1450 ▼
  • NZD/CAD: 0.7900 - 0.8100 ▲

Written by

Brett Ottawa

OFXpert

Brett brings a wealth of experience, boasting more than 15 years in the foreign exchange market. He started his foreign exchange career with OFX more than a decade ago, as a private dealer catering to individual clients. He later transitioned to the corporate sector, assuming the position of Corporate Senior Relationship Manager. What truly excites Brett is the opportunity to engage with people, supporting their business growth and sharing in their successes.