US Jobs data set to drive US Dollar as Fed rate-cut bets hang in the balance
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Daily Currency Update
US non-farm payrolls will be the highlight of an eventful week that also features global manufacturing PMI data and flash eurozone inflation. The monthly jobs report is critical for FX markets, as it will help shape expectations for further Fed rate cuts this year. While the Fed delivered its first cut at the September FOMC meeting and signalled the possibility of two more, Chair Powell and others have since cautioned that the trajectory is far from guaranteed. Any evidence of a softening US labour market would reinforce a dovish outlook, likely putting downward pressure on the US dollar, while a strong report could revive bets on a more cautious Fed stance.Key Movers
In Europe, attention will be on the September PMIs and flash eurozone CPI figures. Both are expected to show inflation holding near the ECB’s 2% target, which could reinforce expectations that the central bank maintains its current policy. For FX markets, this may keep the euro relatively stable against major currencies, with limited volatility unless the data surprises on either side.Expected Ranges
- GBP/USD: 1.3405 - 1.3495 ▼
- GBP/EUR: 1.1415 - 1.1495 ▼
- GBP/AUD: 2.0405 - 2.0515 ▼
- EUR/USD: 1.1705 - 1.1775 ▲