Markets eye US inflation data
Daily Currency Update
Sterling had a quiet day yesterday with GBP/USD trending slightly lower, retreating from a two-week high as the US Dollar firms ahead of today’s inflationary data with the pair trading around 1.3440 this morning. This was helped slightly by the UK's claimant count change (Change in the number of people claiming unemployment) which has fallen by 6.2k compared to last month against the forecast 19.7k increase, showing promising signs. The early morning data has also bolstered the Pound against the Euro raising the rate from 1.154 to 1.1575 at the time of writing.The Euro continues its slow slide with the EUR/USD pair reversal from 1.1700 highs last week finds support at 1.16 hovering just above at 1.161. Hopes of a ceasefire in Ukraine are providing some support to the Euro (EUR). The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday that Russian President Vladimir Putin presented a ceasefire plan in exchange for territorial concessions in Eastern Ukraine, which although has been rejected outright by Ukrainian President Zelensky, the markets remain hopeful on some sort of peace deal with Trump & Putin's meeting later this week.
The Australian Central Bank rate cut down from 3.85% to 3.6% has knocked back some of the currencies gains with GBP/AUD climbing back to 2.068 putting the pair on a 3 week high.
Key Movers
In the US, the CPI data being released today is likely to be a major mover for the Dollar, with markets already pricing in high odds of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in September. If the data comes out above forecasted Core CPI Y/Y at 2.8% vs 2.7% previous & Core CPI M/M at 0.3% vs 0.2% previous that could temper those expectations and signal to the FED to hold off on further rate cuts and lend support to the US Dollar.Expected Ranges
- GBP/USD: 1.339 - 1.35 ▲
- GBP/EUR: 1.154 - 1.16 ▲
- GBP/AUD: 2.06 - 2.071 ▼
- EUR/USD: 1.158 - 1.166 ▲