Home Daily Commentaries NZD choppy on reports Fed Chair could be fired

NZD choppy on reports Fed Chair could be fired

Matt Richardson
Written by
Matt Richardson

Matt Richardson

OFXpert

Matt provides expertise in currency risk management to his clients, drawing from his 14 years of experience in foreign exchange.

| Thursday 17 July, 2025

Daily Currency Update

The NZD tracked a narrow range through Wednesday as net movements among major currencies were well contained. Having drifted downward through much of the domestic session, the NZD enjoyed some volatility as markets reacted to reports President Trump had expressed support for firing Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell. Risk sentiment faltered and the NZD crashed through supports at US$0.5930, marking intraday lows just above US$0.5910, before a USD sell off took hold. Equities and treasury yields moved lower, and the NZD pushed back toward the daily open and levels nearer US$0.5965/70. The upswing didn’t last long. Less than an hour after the initial report emerged, President Trump said he was not planning on doing anything and had merely spoken to lawmakers about the concept of firing him. Trump suggested that outside of fraud, it is highly unlikely the Fed Chair will be fired. Price action abruptly corrected after fears were assuaged, and the NZD opens this morning buying US$0.5950.

Our attentions today turn to monthly inflation numbers and Q2 CPI estimated, while Australian employment data, UK labour market figures and US retails sales round out the macro ticket.

Key Movers

Price action was whippy through Wednesday as markets responded to reports President Trump had considered firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Equities dropped, yields moved lower, and the USD fell amid early reports the President had asked lawmakers if he had grounds to fire Powell. Concern the independence of the Fed is under threat spooked markets, yet the panic didn’t last long, with the president assuaging fears and confirming he had no intention of firing Powell. The USD bounced back, ensuring net movements across the day were well contained.

The yen was the day's best performer, recovering losses suffered through the start of the week and forcing the USD back below 148.

In tariff news, US Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, and President Trump announced that letters would be issued to more than 150 trading partners in the coming days. Few changes or concessions will be afforded as they are more a reminder to finalise deals, or be held to rates announced on Liberation Day in April. The market reaction was muted as this latest cache of letters is set to go to smaller, less significant trading partners.

Our attentions remain with tariff headlines, while UK labour numbers and US retails sales dominate the macro ticket.

Expected Ranges

  • NZD/USD: 0.5880 - 0.6000 ▼
  • NZD/EUR: 0.5050 - 0.5950 ▼
  • GBP/NZD: 2.2400 - 2.2700 ▲
  • NZD/AUD: 0.9080 - 0.9150 ▼
  • NZD/CAD: 0.8100 - 0.8200 ▼

Written by

Matt Richardson

OFXpert

As a Senior Corporate Client Manager, Matt provides expertise in currency risk management to his clients, drawing from his 14 years of experience in foreign exchange. Matt has clients who he has been working with for over a decade, a testament to his knowledge and dedication in the field. Matt is also a regular contributor on Ausbiz, offering clear and precise updates on currency market trends, showcasing his ability to interpret complex financial data into actionable insights.