Home Daily Commentaries New Zealand trades lower following the release of China’s latest trade data

New Zealand trades lower following the release of China’s latest trade data

Brett Ottawa
Written by
Brett Ottawa

Brett Ottawa

OFXpert

Brett brings a wealth of experience, boasting more than 15 years in the foreign exchange market.

| Monday 12 May, 2025

Daily Currency Update

The New Zealand dollar is slightly weaker this morning when valued against the Greenback currently trading at 0.5905 at time of writing. The NZD/USD pair continues its downward trajectory for the third consecutive session. The decline follows the release of China's latest trade data, which pointed to a slowdown in external demand. Given New Zealand’s strong trade links with China, any weakness in the Chinese economy tends to negatively impact the NZD. China’s trade surplus narrowed to CNY 689.99 billion in April, down from CNY 736.72 billion in March. Exports rose 9.3% year-on-year, easing from March's 13.5% growth, while imports edged up 0.8% YoY, recovering from a -3.5% decline previously. Last week New Zealand's unemployment rate remained at 5.1% in the March 2025 quarter, according to the latest data from Stats NZ. Seasonally adjusted levels of unemployment stayed at 156,000 between the quarters of December 2024 and March 2025. However, annual unemployment went up by 22,500 to 156,000. Meanwhile, New Zealand's employment rate remained relatively flat at 67.2%, according to Stats NZ. Its findings show that the number of employed people went up by 2,000 in the March quarter, but down by 21,000 annually to 2,914,000. Looking ahead this week and on Wednesday Statistics New Zealand will release the latest monthly visitor arrivals. On Thursday we will see the release of the Performance of Manufacturing Index.

Key Movers

The US dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US dollar against a basket of currencies, reverses sharply on Friday after hitting a near one-month high of 100.86 earlier in the day. Disappointment surrounding the so-called US-UK trade deal weighed heavily on the Greenback, with investors focusing on this weekend’s critical trade negotiations between the United States and China in Switzerland. Sir Keir Starmer and Donald Trump announced the "first-of-a-kind" agreement with a live, televised phone call earlier this week, and the British prime minister hailed the deal as one that will save thousands of jobs in the UK. The scramble to secure a UK-US trade deal was sparked by Mr Trump's 'Liberation Day' announcement last month, which saw the president hike import tariffs for multiple countries and subsequently send global markets crashing. President Donald Trump's blanket 10% tariffs on imports from countries around the world still applies to most UK goods entering the US. The agreement, which has yet to be fully worked out, will reduce tariffs on British steel, aluminium and aircraft engine exports to the US down to zero. Meanwhile, taxes on up to 100,000 British cars exported annually to the US will be reduced from 27.5 per cent to 10 per cent.

Expected Ranges

  • NZD/USD: 0.5800 - 0.6000 ▼
  • NZD/EUR: 0.5200 - 0.5400 ▼
  • GBP/NZD: 2.2300 - 2.2500 ▲
  • NZD/AUD: 1.0750 - 1.0950 ▲
  • NZD/CAD: 0.8150 - 0.8350 ▼

Written by

Brett Ottawa

OFXpert

Brett brings a wealth of experience, boasting more than 15 years in the foreign exchange market. He started his foreign exchange career with OFX more than a decade ago, as a private dealer catering to individual clients. He later transitioned to the corporate sector, assuming the position of Corporate Senior Relationship Manager. What truly excites Brett is the opportunity to engage with people, supporting their business growth and sharing in their successes.