Home Daily Commentaries AUD continues to eke out gains but are we approaching resistance

AUD continues to eke out gains but are we approaching resistance

Matt Richardson
Written by
Matt Richardson

Matt Richardson

OFXpert

Matt provides expertise in currency risk management to his clients, drawing from his 14 years of experience in foreign exchange.

| Wednesday 16 April, 2025

Daily Currency Update

The Australian dollar outperformed Tuesday, only outpaced by its antipodean counterpart the NZD as price action calms amid fewer negative tariff headlines. The AUD extended its post-liberation day recovery, pushing above US$0.6350 to test intraday highs at US$0.6383 before a broadly stronger USD forced a move back toward US$0.6340. Having rebounded sharply off lows below US$0.60 the AUD recovery is showing signs of running out of steam. Technical markers suggest resistance on moves approaching US$0.64 with previous attempts to puncture the level rebuffed. We are closely watching AUD upswings for any sign it may extend a breakthrough resistance. Markets remain wary of extending gains as the US/China trade war shows little sign of concluding in the near term. China issued an order overnight preventing its airlines from taking delivery of Boeing aircraft while halting any new purchases. The move saw Boeing shares tumble and is a clear signal tensions remain elevated. While the 90-day moratorium on tariffs has afforded the AUD a reprieve downside risks remain in play as the tariff environment evolves.

Our attention remains on tariff headlines as Q1 GDP data and monthly activity indicators from China, while US retail sales data are expected to show a solid uptick as consumers front load spending ahead of looming tariffs.

Key Movers

The US dollar advanced Tuesday, halting a 5-day sell-off as markets paused to assess potions. The euro fell off highs above 1.14, sliding below 1.13 as EU and US trade negotiations stalled. With analysts seeking to divest US assets and seek alternative haven strongholds, the euro has found support, surging through the last 2 weeks to mark highs near 1.1450. The correction on Tuesday suggests some profit-taking. Sterling edged higher up 0.3% while the yen continues to find support as a haven target forcing the USD below 143. The Canadian dollar underperformed down half a percent following softer-than-anticipated quarterly inflation data. Canada’s headline CPI inflation print fell 0.4% in the year to March, well above market estimates. The steep decline in price pressures prompted speculation the Bank of Canada may cut rates again this evening, yet the consensus suggests rates will remain on hold.

Our attention remains on tariff headlines.

Expected Ranges

  • AUD/USD: 0.6280 - 0.6400 ▲
  • AUD/EUR: 0.5550 - 0.5650 ▲
  • GBP/AUD: 2.0700 - 2.1000 ▲
  • AUD/NZD: 1.0700 - 1.0900 ▼
  • AUD/CAD: 0.8780 - 0.8920 ▲

Written by

Matt Richardson

OFXpert

As a Senior Corporate Client Manager, Matt provides expertise in currency risk management to his clients, drawing from his 14 years of experience in foreign exchange. Matt has clients who he has been working with for over a decade, a testament to his knowledge and dedication in the field. Matt is also a regular contributor on Ausbiz, offering clear and precise updates on currency market trends, showcasing his ability to interpret complex financial data into actionable insights.