AUD drifts further sideways
Daily Currency Update
The AUD has continued to slightly drift on a minor upward trajectory, enjoying almost 3 weeks of rises versus the USD. The last time this has happened was early September 2024. Short term support was still found yesterday around the US$0.6330 since the dip from resistance level just above the US$0.6400 mark. The AUD closed yesterday around the US$0.6350 mark versus the USD. The AUD has also stayed steady versus the euro, Great British pound, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc, however, has continued its retreat against the Japanese yen. The AUD has been one of the weakest currencies since the start of the week, relative to a basket of major currencies.Today the AUD opened similarly where it left off yesterday, around the mid US$0.63's.
Major news of the day for the Aussie dollar and one to keep an eye out on are the CPI figures. Forecast expected at 2.6% versus previous reading of 2.5%, which keeps the figure within the RBA's expected range of between 2 and 3%. Japan’s CPI figures may also affect the AUD/JPY cross and give insight as to whether the BOJ may hike rates again.
Key Movers
CHF and JPY pairs have been relatively strong relative to other currencies for the past week, while AUD and USD both have been the two weakest. NZD, EUR and GBP at present are ranked as the mid-table from this basket of major currencies. Overall, the JPY has been the strongest currency since January as rate hike bets increase at the helm of the BOJ. Some mixed economic figures and 'Trumponomics 2.0' with Tariffs as the main arsenal and bargaining tool, the USD had some initial strength post inauguration, however, has declined since mid-December 2025.On the political front, Trump has stated that proposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico are expected to "be on time and to go ahead." The real curveball of the week however came when the US has sided with Moscow on the UN Resolution on Ukraine, subsequently casting doubt on the longer-term US-UK-EU alliance. Questions arise whether this cozying up to Russia is to influence potential post-war agreements to win back trade deals. Time will tell, each day will bring a new perspective.
News Today
AU – Construction Work Done, CPI
CH – UBS Economic Expectations
EU – German GFK Consumer Climate
JP – BOJ Core CPI
US – S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y, HPI, CB Consumer Confidence, Richmond Manufacturing Index, FOMC Member Barr, Barkin Speeches
Expected Ranges
- AUD/USD: 0.6280 - 0.6400 ▲
- AUD/EUR: 0.6100 - 0.6000 ▼
- GBP/AUD: 1.9750 - 2.0100 ▲
- AUD/NZD: 1.1020 - 1.1100 ▼
- AUD/CAD: 0.9014 - 0.9150 ▲