Daily Currency Update
The Australian dollar is slightly weaker this morning when valued against the Greenback, currently trading at US$0.6815 at time of writing. The AUDUSD pair's decline came as the US dollar regained its safe-haven appeal amidst persistent global economic concerns. Despite the weaker Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, near-term rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), remain unlikely. Last month, Australian Inflation dived to its lowest rate in 3 years as the government's cost-of-living relief and cheaper petrol helped household budgets, but the RBA will likely wait for a more sustained drop before it starts cutting interest rates. Headline consumer price inflation in August was 2.7%, the lowest reading since August 2021, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics report, released on Wednesday. The underlying inflation measure, which strips out more volatile price movers, also fell. Known as the trimmed mean, this gauge came in at 3.4%, down from July’s 3.8%. RBA Governor Michele Bullock indicates that recent data has not significantly affected the policy outlook, reinforcing the hawkish stance and limiting the AUDUSD downside.
Key Movers
The US dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the USD against a basket of currencies, whipsaws in a volatile session on Wednesday, hovering around a 14-month low due to intensifying recession fears. All eyes will be on Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) figures from August. Core PCE is expected to remain unchanged at 0.2% month-on-month, while headline PCE may ease to 0.1% month-on-month versus the 0.2% prior. Components in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data that feed into PCE have also suggested broad pricing pressures under control. Gold price remains steadily above $2,650 for the second straight session on Wednesday as traders increased the odds for another big interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) at the upcoming November meeting. Adding to that, high US Treasury yields kept the XAUUSD from rising further, mostly trading near $2,660. Bullion has risen over 29% so far in 2024, with gains attributed to central bank easing and geopolitical issues.
Expected Ranges
- AUD/USD: 0.6700 - 0.6900 ▼
- AUD/EUR: 0.6000 - 0.6200 ▼
- GBP/AUD: 1.9400 - 1.9600 ▲
- AUD/NZD: 1.0750 - 1.0950 ▲
- AUD/CAD: 0.9100 - 0.9300 ▼