Home Daily Commentaries Inflation data is in focus

Inflation data is in focus

Alex Hartley
Written by
Alex Hartley

Alex Hartley

OFXpert

Driven by a passion for currency markets and data movement, Alex finds great appeal in the dynamic nature of the industry.

| Monday 12 February, 2024

Daily Currency Update

There were only low-impact data releases on Friday. German CPI m/m came in as expected (0.2%) as the previous month's release. However, the inflation rate was lower in January at +2.9% which was the lowest figure since June 2021 (+2.4%). Italian industrial productions picked up in January, beating the previous release and forecast figure – of 1.1% achieved. Data remains thin today as we observe a week-long bank Holiday in China for New Year celebrations. Japan also has a bank holiday today. Federal and Bank of England members will hold the headlines today, with speeches on both sides of the pond this afternoon.

GBP/USD continues to trade above 1.2600 and GBP/EUR remains above 1.1700. Support levels are now being seen on these rounded rates. EUR/USD tried to break 1.0800 earlier this morning but currently trades a little lower.

Key Movers

Inflation news will be anticipated by market participants this week with the US announcing its CPI numbers tomorrow. US Policymakers continue to say they are encouraged by the progress made on inflation but airing caution at the same time. This has seen a change in when the market expects the US to start cutting interest rates, which brings data announcements into focus as to whether inflation shows further signs of control. CPI data is also being released on Wednesday from the UK where the same focus will be given for GBP movement.

Expected Ranges

  • GBP/USD: 1.2580 - 1.2670 ▲
  • GBP/EUR: 1.1690 - 1.1760 ▲
  • GBP/AUD: 1.9280 - 1.9450 ▲
  • EUR/USD: 1.0750 - 1.0820 ▲

Written by

Alex Hartley

OFXpert

Driven by a passion for currency markets and data movement, Alex finds great appeal in the dynamic nature of the industry. With over 20 years of experience, Alex works closely with businesses to understand their foreign exchange requirements and align them with solutions. Placing a strong emphasis on customer service, he takes pride in nurturing long-lasting relationships with clients.