Home Daily Commentaries Markets are still processing the implications of Powell’s actions

Markets are still processing the implications of Powell’s actions

Thursday 1 December, 2022

Daily Currency Update

On Thursday, the dollar slumped to a three-month low, while US stock futures paused after earlier strong gains driven by China's more relaxed approach to COVID and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's pledge of a slower US rate-hiking pace. After Jerome Powell suggested that a 50bp hike is now likely at the December 14 FOMC meeting, it seems as though US interest rates will be cut back soon. As anticipated, US annual Core PCE inflation decreased to 5% in October. The US dollar lost ground against its competitors and was trading at 105.05 on the US dollar Index, down 0.75% for the day. The US Department of Labor published data on Thursday showing that there were 225,000 initial jobless claims in the week ending November 26. This week's print of 241,000 (revised from 240,000) was an improvement from the previous week and beat analysts' predictions of 235,000.

Key Movers

The most recent eurozone CPI report showed that headline inflation unexpectedly fell to 10.0% in November, while the core rate remained at 5.0%. The inflation rate appears to be stabilizing, adding to optimism. This, combined with the weakening of economic activity data during the winter period should encourage the ECB to adopt a less hawkish policy stance Germany's retail sales figures for October showed a 2.8% month-on-month decrease, versus expectations of a -0.6% decline and the previous figure of 0.9%. The data was released by Destatis on Thursday. The EUR however showed little signs of being affected by German data. EUR/USD is still trading above 1.0400 in positive territory as the US dollar has been unable to mount a recovery since FOMC Chairman Powell made a dovish comment. The most recent survey conducted by the Bank of England (BoE) showed that panel decision makers expect "lower investment and employment when interest rates rise," according to Reuters. GBP/USD continued its upward momentum during European trading hours, peaking at 1.2150   A modest decline in Crude oil prices from a one-week high on Wednesday weakened the commodity-linked Canadian dollar and helped sustain the USD/CAD pair.

Expected Ranges

  • EUR/USD: 1.0292 - 1.0482 ▲
  • GBP/USD: 1.1904 - 1.2223 ▲
  • AUD/USD: 0.6689 - 0.6839 ▲
  • USD/CAD: 1.3397 - 1.3569 ▲