Home Daily Commentaries New Zealand dollar falls below 69 U.S. cents

New Zealand dollar falls below 69 U.S. cents

Daily Currency Update

The New Zealand dollar is slightly weaker this morning when valued against the greenback trading just below the 69 U.S. cents.  The NZD/USD pair witnessed some selling on Friday but seems to have stalled its recent bullish trend closer to the key 0.7000 psychological mark. The downtick was exclusively brought on by a broad-based US dollar strength, underpinned by a continued global bond market selloff. The Kiwi dollar was the worst performer on Friday, down 0.6% for the day to just under 0.6850.

Looking ahead this week and on Tuesday we will see the release of NZIER Business Confidence, a survey of about 2,500 businesses that asks respondents to rate the relative 6-month economic outlook. We will also see the release of monthly NZ Visitor Arrivals which looks at the change in the number of short-term overseas visitors who arrived in the country.  On Wednesday the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will meet with the market forecasting the RBNZ to lift the official cash rate from 1.00% to 1.25%. On Thursday we will see the release of Business NZ Manufacturing Index, a survey of manufacturers that asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions.

Key Movers

Key mover on Friday we saw global 10-year rates around the world rose to fresh multi-year highs which continues to support the greenback. The US 10-year rate reached its highest level in nearly two years of 2.73%, before ending at 2.70%, up 32bps for the week. The S&P500 closed down 0.3%, while the Nasdaq index fell 1.3%, some nerves evident as rates continue their relentless rise. The S&P500 showed a 1.3% fall for the week. On the data front on Friday US Factory Orders were down 0.5% MoM in February, while Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended April 1 improved to 166K.  Looking ahead this week, the US will publish the March Consumer Price Index, expected to reach 8.3% YoY. The core reading is foreseen at 6.6%, up from the previous 6.4%. The country will also release March Retail Sales and the preliminary estimate of the April Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

Expected Ranges

  • NZD/USD: 0.6750 - 0.6950 ▼
  • NZD/EUR: 0.6175 - 0.6375 ▼
  • GBP/NZD: 1.8900 - 1.9100 ▲
  • NZD/AUD: 1.0750 - 1.0950 ▼
  • NZD/CAD: 0.8500 - 0.8700 ▲