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Australian dollar tests 0.70 following poor inflation print

AUD - Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar was rattled on Wednesday morning following a poor CPI print for the first quarter of 2018. Opening at 71 US cents, the Aussie dropped 1% on the news that inflation figures was unchanged at 0%, disappointing investors after failing to meet market expectations of an increase of 0.2%.

Trading on thin liquidity this week due to numerous public holidays, the Australian dollar showed no signs of relief as it continued its drop during Anzac Day to test psychological support levels at the 70 US cent handle. With inflation falling to an annualised rate of 1.3%, pricing for the first interest rate cut since August 2016 have increased dramatically to a 66% chance in the next RBA monetary policy meeting in May.

From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.7015. We continue to expect support to hold on moves approaching 0.6990 while now any upward push will likely meet resistance at 0.71.

Key Movers

The greenback continued its broader rally as the DXY broke through key resistance levels of 97.60. Core Durable Orders for the month of March powered ahead as equipment purchases rose by its largest levels in eight months. This fuelled the US Dollar Index to reach two-year highs overnight of 98.30, and powering though 98.00 for the first time since May 2017.

The Euro was a key mover lower over the past week seeing 22-month lows of 1.1120 overnight. A stronger greenback and a string of poor data streaming out of the region could see the possibility of the 1.10 handle to be tested over the coming weeks. IFO Business Climate figures released in Germany showed a decline in business morale as the regions largest economy continues to fade.

Both the BOJ and Bank of Canada kept interest rates on hold yesterday. Bank of Canada maintained its interest rate at 1.75% with a downgrade in growth forecasts noted. Growth is expected to peak at 1.2% this year with real GDP to steadily climb to 2% in 2020 and 2021. BOJ kept rates on hold at -0.1% with a commitment to its ultra-loose possibility for at least another year as BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda noted global trade tensions continue to affect the local economy.

Market moves expect to be driven this evening by the release of Advance GDP figures in the United States for the first quarter of 2019.

Expected Ranges

AUD/USD: 0.6990 - 0.7080 ▼

AUD/EUR: 0.6250 - 0.6340 ▲

AUD/NZD: 1.0500 - 1.0640 ▼

GBP/AUD: 1.8200 - 1.8600 ▲

AUD/CAD: 0.9400 - 0.9530 ▼