Home Daily Commentaries Trump tariffs allow exemptions for Canada and Mexico. EUR lower after ECB, GBP awaits data on industrial production. US employment numbers out this afternoon.

Trump tariffs allow exemptions for Canada and Mexico. EUR lower after ECB, GBP awaits data on industrial production. US employment numbers out this afternoon.

Daily Currency Update

It’s now more than 24 hours since GBP/USD was last on a 1.39 ‘big figure’ whilst both in New York yesterday evening and in Asia overnight, it has actually traded on 1.37. In part this reflects a more general improvement in the US Dollar after President Trump granted some exemptions to his proposed tariffs but it also reflects GBP-specific weakness. The pound is this morning lower against every one of the major currencies we follow closely here ahead of a batch of UK economic data to be released today.

According to the Financial Times this morning, Brexit impact assessments published by the Exiting the EU Committee on Thursday show that the government’s policy of allowing regulatory divergence with the EU is estimated to cost the economy the most. It says that, “The document gives a detailed account of the cross government new economic model, which shows that in a classic Free Trade agreement with the EU27, the total hit to the economy would be 5 per cent less growth than otherwise after 15 years.” The other main conclusion, not already in the public domain, is that the public finance costs of Brexit are now thought to be more onerous than previous Treasury modelling suggested, with a net cost of 3 per cent of national income from an FTA agreement.

At the end of a week which has been pretty light in terms of incoming economic news, today brings the overseas trade numbers and the manufacturing and industrial production data. Surveys such as the PMI have been consistent with continued expansion in factory output and consensus looks for a modest +0.2% m/m gain after +0.3% in December. There was a big fall in total production last time due to the closure of an oil supply pipeline, but this fall is expected to be fully reversed with a 1.2% m/m gain. The trade data come after the December numbers showed a deficit in goods of £13.6bn; the highest since September 2016. They highlight the importance to the UK economy of securing the best possible transitional deal for the post-Brexit world, not least because the UK runs a surplus on the exports of services of around £3bn per month.

Key Movers

The US Dollar rose sharply on Thursday. This was due to a big reversal in the EUR after the ECB Council Meeting and a softening of the President’s position on trade tariffs with exemptions already announced and more potentially still to come. The USD index against a basket of major currencies rose from 89.10 at lunchtime in Europe to a best level of 89.90 overnight; fully reversing the losses which had been seen earlier this week.

President Trump last night signed a proclamation to impose steep tariffs on imported steel and aluminium. The protectionist policies were needed to stop America’s trading partners from “stealing our wealth”, he said. Surrounded by steel and aluminium workers and key staff, Trump said he had to act to stop the “decimation of entire communities” and insisted there would be a very fair process as the administration used the next 15 days to negotiate exemptions with allies. Canada and Mexico will be exempted. More than 100 Republican House members signed a letter on Wednesday expressing “deep concern” about the plan. They pressed Trump to change course and “avoid unintended negative consequences to the US economy and its workers”. They added that “tariffs are taxes that make US businesses less competitive and US consumers poorer.”

Today brings the monthly US labour market report; delayed by a week from its usual ‘first Friday’ slot. It was the big jump in hourly average earnings a month ago which triggered the stock market rout with a 666-point drop for the DJIA on the day the numbers were released. For the February data, consensus is for non-farm payrolls to have risen 210-220k with the unemployment rate at 4.0% and a slight fall in average earnings from 2.9% to 2.8% y/y. The US Dollar index opens in Europe this morning around 89.75.

The EUR had a two-stage reaction to Thursday’s ECB Council meeting. Initially, EUR/USD spiked almost half a cent higher to 1.2435 but by the end of the afternoon it had fallen more than a full cent from the high to just 1.2320. Overnight in Asia, the pair has briefly traded on a 1.22 ‘big figure’ but has subsequently steadied and settled in the low 1.23’s.

In its opening Statement, the ECB removed its previous pledge to increase its asset purchase programme (APP) in size or duration should the economic outlook becomes less favourable, taking away what had been its most explicit ‘easing bias’. This signaling prompted a wave of buying for the EUR. We have said many times that Mr Draghi is a master of managing market expectations and yesterday showed him on top form. In his Q+A session, he downplayed the significance of this move, calling it “a backward-looking move without signals for either our expectations or our reaction function.” He also stressed the Statement’s line that an “ample degree of monetary stimulus remains necessary for underlying inflationary pressures to continue to build up to support headline inflation developments over the medium-term.” Traders quickly changed tack, and the EUR more than reversed all its earlier gains. Mr Draghi can certainly look back at the Press Conference as a job very well done: changing the communication and pushing the EUR simultaneously lower.

As well as a change to the language, we also saw new staff economic projections. Inflation forecasts have been revised down one-tenth to 1.4% for 2018 and two-tenths for 2019 at 1.5%. GDP was moved up one tenth for 2018 to 2.4% though unchanged for 2019 and 2020 at 1.9% and 1.7% respectively. The EUR opens in London this morning in the low-USD1.23’s with GBP/EUR at 1.12.

The Australian Dollar has slipped gradually lower from Tuesday’s high of USD0.7835. The fall hasn’t been dramatic by any means but it hasn’t been back on a US 78 cents big figure since 3pm London time yesterday. Though GBP/AUD is steady at 1.77, the AUD/CAD cross is around a cent lower than Wednesday’s best level of 1.0135. There is a good area of technical support evident around USD0.7775 and it is this area which will be closely watched when the US jobs numbers are published later this afternoon.

Early in the day on Thursday, President Trump made strong hints that Australia would be given special consideration on steel tariffs. “We’re are going to be very fair, we’re going to be very flexible, but we’re going to protect the American worker,” he said before a cabinet meeting in Washington. “We’re negotiating with Mexico, we’re negotiating with Canada. We have a very close relationship with Australia. We have a trade surplus with Australia. Great country, long-term partner. We’ll be doing something with them. We’ll be doing something with some other countries.” When it came to the formal announcement, however, there was no mention of Australia.

Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull welcomed the way Mr Trump had recognised that Australia was a strong ally of the US. "He expressly acknowledged the points we have made about the important relationship with Australia, the very strong friendship and of course the fact America has a surplus in its trade with Australia.” President Trump has invited “any country with which we have a security relationship” to discuss “alternative ways” to address the security risks of steel and aluminum imports. Trade negotiator, Robert Lighthizer, will now be heavily lobbied by Australian politicians and businesses. The Australian Dollar opens this morning in the high-USD77’s with GBP/AUD at 1.77.


The Canadian Dollar had a good day on Thursday after the US specifically excluded Canada and Mexico from the initial impact of tariffs on steel and aluminium. USD/CAD fell from the mid-1.29’s back on to a 1.28 big figure and the CAD gained more than a cent against bot the GBP and AUD. Sentiment had become increasingly bearish over the past week to ten days and it’s not clear that ll the ‘short’ positions in the CAD have yet been unwound. Its recent rally may have a little further to go if this afternoon’s jobs data don’t hold any nasty surprises.

President Trumps tariffs on steel and aluminium, which are being enacted under section 232 of the little used Trade Expansion Act of 1962, will exempt both metals coming from Canada and Mexico on national security grounds — at least initially. The so-called "carve out" of Canadian steel and aluminum will allow U.S. trade negotiators to have what a senior administration official described as "ongoing discussions" about various issues involving the three countries. Mr Trump himself was less coy, “We're going to hold off the tariff on those two countries to see whether we can make the deal on NAFTA." Reacting to the decision by the US president to hold off on imposing the duties on Mexico and Canada, Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland said politicians of all stripes, stakeholders and businesses worked energetically to reach a positive outcome. "This has been a true Team Canada effort," she said.

Though most attention today will be on the US labour market data, we also have the simultaneous release of the Canadian employment report. Economists in a Reuters poll expect jobs to rebound by 20,000 after slumping 88,000 in January. The Canadian Dollar opens in Europe this morning with USD/CAD in the high-1.28’s and GBP/CAD at 1.78x`.

the New Zealand Dollar hasn’t seen US 73 cents since teatime on Tuesday, though its decline against the USD has been measured and orderly. Indeed, it only had a very brief spike below 0.7250 yesterday afternoon and has otherwise spent the whole of the past 60 hours in the high 72’s. Against the British pound, the NZD has actually strengthened this week and GBP/NZD is now below 1.90 for the first time since last Friday.

In economic data, total card spending across all industries was relatively flat (up 0.1 percent) in February 2018, when adjusted for seasonal effects, Stats NZ said today. Retail card spending dipped 0.3 percent in February, after five consecutive monthly increases. February’s decline was led by a 0.5 percent fall in spending on consumables, which includes grocery and liquor retailing and the statisticians commented that, “This is the first decrease in the consumables group since May 2017 and could be the effect of people hunkering down during the two ex-tropical cyclones that hit this month.” Spending was subdued across most of the six retail industries. There was little or no change in durables (includes hardware, furniture, and appliances), hospitality (accommodation, bars, cafes, restaurants, and takeaways), apparel (clothing and footwear), and fuel.

As the North Island of New Zealand spends the weekend worrying about a potential hit from Cyclone Hola on Monday and Tuesday, the Kiwi Dollar opens in London this Friday morning in the high-USD 72’s with GBP/NZD just under 1.90.


Expected Ranges

  • GBP/USD: 1.3720 - 1.3910 ▼
  • GBP/EUR: 1.1160 - 1.1270 ▼
  • GBP/AUD: 1.7685 - 1.7800 ▼
  • GBP/CAD: 1.7760 - 1.7960 ▼
  • GBP/NZD: 1.8920 - 1.9100 ▼