The key drivers below could affect investor risk sentiment and currency markets from the week commencing November 9, through to the end of the month.
- A busy week for central banks. Three banks raised rates: the Bank of Canada (BOC) to 2.50% on October 28, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to 4.85% on November 3 and the Bank of England (BoE) to 4.00% on November 5. The Federal Reserve and Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) held on October 28, as did the European Central Bank (ECB) on October 29 and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) on October 30. Markets are now weighing what these decisions mean for interest rates and growth into year-end.
- Politics and fiscal policy also moved markets. The UK Autumn Budget landed on October 28, followed by the US midterm elections on November 3, Canada’s federal budget on November 5 and New Zealand’s general election on November 7, while French budget negotiations continue. Democrats won control of both the House and Senate, and the US Dollar Index fell to a five-week low as markets weighed the prospect of legislative gridlock. Canada’s budget focused on cost-of-living support, housing and infrastructure. In New Zealand, the 7 November election delivered a tightly contested result, with Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s coalition narrowly ahead in the preliminary count. With special votes yet to be included and official results due later in November, markets will be watching for clarity on the composition of the next government and any implications for fiscal and economic policy.
- Inflation data takes centre stage again. US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is due November 10, followed by Canadian CPI on November 16, and UK CPI on November 18. Australian monthly CPI on November 25, US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation and third-quarter GDP all land on November 25.
- Growth and jobs checks. UK GDP is due on November 12, followed by Japanese GDP on November 16, Australian jobs data on November 19 and Canadian GDP on November 30. These releases come ahead of December meetings for the RBA (December 8), Fed ( December 8–9), BOC and RBNZ (December 9), ECB and BoE ( December 17) and BoJ ( December 18).
EUR | Euro
The euro has firmed towards US$1.125 after the ECB held rates and the US dollar slipped following the midterm results. No ECB meeting in November leaves US data and French politics in the driving seat.
EURUSD has stayed under pressure since its 17-month low of $1.1161 on October 5, slipping to around $1.1105 by late October as the US dollar held firm. It strengthened to around $1.125 on November 4 as the US dollar fell after the midterms.
The ECB held all three key interest rates on October 29, keeping the deposit rate at 2.50% after September’s rise. Eurozone inflation eased slightly in October’s flash estimate published on November 4, although it remained elevated and above the ECB’s target. Markets will likely be watching to see if inflation continues to moderate ahead of the ECB’s next policy meeting on December 17.
With no ECB meeting in November, EURUSD may remain sensitive to movements in the US dollar. US PCE inflation data, released on November 25, may influence expectations for Federal Reserve rates. French budget talks may also remain in focus, particularly if concerns around borrowing costs re-emerge. Signs of further ECB rate rises could support the euro, while a firmer US dollar could weigh on it.
Expected ranges:
- EURUSD 1.0950–1.1350
- EURGBP 0.8250–0.8600
GBP | Sterling
Sterling sits near its highest level against the euro since mid-2025 after the Bank of England raised rates to 4.00% on November 5, with inflation data due before its December 17 decision.
The pound went into the Autumn Budget trading near 1.195 against the euro, and around $1.333 against the US dollar. Markets largely considered Chancellor John Healey’s first Budget to include few major surprises, with sterling subsequently strengthening. In the days that followed, GBPEUR moved above 1.20, reaching its highest level since mid-2025, as investors weighed the prospect of UK interest rates remaining higher than those in the eurozone for longer.
The Bank of England raised the Bank Rate to 4.00% in November, citing persistent inflationary pressures and a resilient labour market. The move reinforced expectations that UK interest rates may remain high compared with those in the eurozone, helping support sterling and contributing to GBPEUR’s move above 1.20. Third-quarter GDP on November 12 will provide more information about how the economy is performing, and October inflation on November 18 is the last major inflation reading before the Bank’s next decision on December 17. Firmer inflation could support the pound, while weaker growth or renewed fiscal concerns could see recent gains pared back.
Expected ranges:
- GBPUSD 1.3050–1.3500
- GBPEUR 1.1700–1.2100
AUD | Australian dollar
The Australian dollar sits just above US$0.70 after the RBA lifted the cash rate to 4.85% on November 3, with jobs and inflation data due before its final meeting of the year on December 8.
AUDUSD has hovered around the US$0.70 level following the RBA’s November rate hike and a softer US dollar after the US midterm elections, with markets weighing the outlook for further policy moves from both the RBA and the Federal Reserve.
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.85% on November 3 in a 6–3 vote, its fifth rise of 2026. It now sees headline inflation peaking at 4.5% and staying above 3% until late 2027, while stopping short of signalling further rises. The Board has said it will do what’s necessary to return inflation to target, so incoming data is likely to shape expectations for December 8.
October jobs data on November 19 and monthly inflation on November 25 are key local releases. A firm labour market or stronger inflation could revive expectations of another rise and support the Australian dollar, while continued US dollar strength or weaker global risk appetite could keep AUDUSD under pressure.
Expected ranges:
- AUDUSD 0.6850–0.7200
- AUDEUR 0.6150–0.6450
- AUDGBP 0.5150–0.5400
- AUDNZD 1.2050–1.2550
NZD New Zealand dollar
The New Zealand dollar trades near US$0.57 after the RBNZ’s surprise hold on October 28 and the November 7 general election. Attention now turns to December 9 rate decision.
NZDUSD steadied around $0.570 in late October, just above its early-October low of $0.5594, the weakest level since late 2025. Following New Zealand’s 7 November election, the New Zealand dollar was little changed as markets awaited the count of special votes and greater clarity on the composition of the next government.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) lifted the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 2.75% in September, and annual inflation was 3.7% in the September quarter, still above the RBNZ’s 1–3% target range. On 28 October, the RBNZ held the OCR at 2.75% in a 4–3 vote, when markets had generally expected a rise.
With no clear election winner yet confirmed, markets will likely be following the final vote count for clues on the potential fiscal outlook.
With the RBNZ’s next decision on December 9, the kiwi is likely to remain sensitive to global risk appetite and US dollar movements through November. Signs of further tightening or a clear post-election policy path could support the New Zealand dollar, while a firmer US dollar or prolonged political uncertainty could weigh on it.
Expected ranges:
- NZDUSD 0.5550–0.5850
USD | United States dollar
The US dollar weakened after the Democrats won control of Congress, while the Fed held interest rates amid a busy run of inflation and spending data ahead of its 8–9 December meeting.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) reached its highest level since April 2025 in early October, and the US dollar held most of those gains through the month. Following the US midterm elections, the index fell to a five-week low of 101.55 as markets priced in a potentially more constrained fiscal outlook^. However, the dollar subsequently steadied after a stronger-than-expected US employment report, alongside increased market expectations of near-term Federal Reserve rate hike and a modest rebound from those post-election lows.
The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.75%–4.00% on October 28 in a 10–2 vote, with markets pricing another rise for 2026. As the Democrats took control of the House and Senate on November 3, markets began to price in legislative gridlock and slower policy change.
Key releases this month include: US CPI inflation data on November 10, producer prices on November 13, retail sales on November 17, and PCE inflation on November 25, alongside the second estimate of third-quarter GDP. November’s jobs report lands on December 4, ahead of the Federal Reserve’s final meeting on December 8-9. Firmer inflation could support the US dollar by keeping Fed rate rises in play, while softer data could see it lose ground.
Expected range:
- DXY 100.00 – 103.00
JPY | Japanese yen
The yen sits near 158 per US dollar after the Bank of Japan’s October 29–30 meeting, with third-quarter growth data on November 16 and intervention risk still in focus.
USDJPY traded around 157.8 in late October, close to the top of its range for several months. The yen strengthened to around 157.6 per US dollar on November 4 as the US dollar fell after the midterm results.
The BoJ held its policy rate at 1.25% on October 30, while more than doubling the pace at which it sells’ its holdings of exchange-traded funds (ETFs)^. Japan’s Finance Minister has said the government won’t hesitate to intervene again in the currency market, which may influence the yen and market expectations around further intervention.
Preliminary third-quarter GDP on November 16 is a key local release before the Bank’s December 18 decision. Signs of another rate rise or renewed intervention to support the yen could push USDJPY lower, while a wide gap between US and Japanese interest rates could keep the pair near recent highs.
Expected range:
- USDJPY 154.00–161.00
CAD | Canadian dollar
The Canadian dollar trades near 71 US cents after the Bank of Canada raised rates to 2.50% on October 28, with inflation and growth data due ahead of its December 9 decision.
USDCAD traded around 1.4020 in late October, or roughly 71.3 US cents per Canadian dollar, after touching 1.4300 in mid-October. Following the US midterm elections, the US dollar weakened broadly as markets assessed the implications of a divided political landscape and reduced prospects for major policy changes. The USDCAD subsequently moved lower, allowing the Canadian dollar to recover some ground from its October lows, against a backdrop of ongoing trade tensions and growth concerns.
The BOC held its policy rate at 2.25% in September before raising it by 25 basis points to 2.50% on October 28, its first increase since July 2023. This rate rise provided additional support for the Canadian dollar. The federal budget also focused on cost-of-living relief, housing affordability and infrastructure investment. Markets will continue to monitor the outlook for Canadian growth, trade relations with the US, and the path of interest rates on both sides of the border for potential clues on where USDCAD heads next.
October inflation on November 16 and Q3 GDP on November 30 are key releases before the Bank’s December 9 decision. Further tariff escalation could keep pressure on the Canadian dollar, while easing trade tensions or firmer data could help it recover some ground.
Expected range:
- CADUSD 0.7000–0.7200
SGD | Singapore dollar
USDSGD eases toward 1.27 as the US dollar softens, with no Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) review in November, leaving the US data as a core driver.
The Singapore dollar has strengthened against a softer US dollar, with USDSGD easing from around 1.281 in late October to near 1.27 following the US midterm election results. Markets continue to monitor US interest rate expectations and broader risk sentiment for direction.
The MAS left policy unchanged on October 14, keeping the Singapore dollar on its current path against a basket of trading-partner currencies.
With the MAS review behind it, USDSGD may be influenced by upcoming US economic data, particularly US PCE inflation on November 25, and from expectations for the Federal Reserve’s December 8-9 meeting. A softer US dollar could see USDSGD test lower, while continued US dollar strength or trade tensions weighing on Singapore’s export-driven economy could push the pair higher.
Expected range:
- USDSGD 1.2650–1.2950
HKD | Hong Kong dollar
The Hong Kong dollar sits close to the 7.85 weak-side limit of its trading band, with the Fed’s path into December a key swing factor for Hong Kong interest rates.
USDHKD traded around 7.845 in late October and has remained near the weak end of Hong Kong’s Linked Exchange Rate System. The pair continues to trade close to the Hong Kong Monetary Authority’s (HKMA) 7.85 weak-side convertibility undertaking, with the HKMA intervening as needed to maintain the currency peg. Expectations for US interest rates remain a key driver for USDHKD ahead of the Federal Reserve’s December meeting.
The HKMA’s base rate moves in lockstep with the Federal Reserve, while local interbank rates have stayed well below US rates. That gap can encourage investors to borrow in Hong Kong dollars to buy higher-yielding US dollar assets, which may weigh on the Hong Kong dollar. If the pair reaches 7.85, the HKMA buys Hong Kong dollars to defend the band, which reduces cash available to banks and can push local interest rates higher. With the Fed on hold on October 28, the HKMA’s base rate is unchanged.
US PCE inflation on November 25 and the Federal Reserve’s December 8-9 meeting are important swing factors for the US-HK interest rate gap. Barring a shift in expectations for US rates, USDHKD may remain near the weak end of its trading band.
Expected range:
- USDHKD 7.8300–7.8500
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