US jobs data drags on the dollar
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Daily Currency Update
On Friday, US employment data fell short of expectations. The unemployment rate aligned with the forecast at 4.2%, down from August's 4.3%. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-on-month, surpassing the anticipated 0.3%. However, non-farm employment change was disappointing, with job growth of 142,000 falling short of the forecasted 162,000. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reassured the public over the weekend, stating that while hiring and job openings are slowing, significant layoffs are not occurring. The GBP/USD pair reached 1.3225 before the data release but subsequently dropped, starting today below 1.3100. Similarly, the EUR/USD pair touched 1.1135 before retreating to below 1.1050.Key Movers
This week begins with a slow pace in macroeconomic data, with minimal announcements expected on Monday and Tuesday. Market participants will be looking ahead to Wednesday's release of the latest UK GDP and USD CPI data. UK growth is anticipated to increase by 0.2% from the previous month, while the CPI is expected to remain unchanged month-on-month but decrease by 0.3% year-on-year. The highlight of the week will be the European Central Bank's (ECB) rate decision on Thursday. A 25 basis point rate cut is widely anticipated. While this cut has already been factored into recent currency movements, attention will focus on ECB President Christine Lagarde’s commentary, particularly regarding the potential for additional rate cuts in October and December.Expected Ranges
- GBP/USD: 1.3060 - 1.3190 ▲
- GBP/EUR: 1.1810 - 1.1880 ▲
- GBP/AUD: 1.9560 - 1.9750 ▲
- EUR/USD: 1.1020 - 1.1140 ▲