GBP - British Pound
Monday saw GBP/USD break $1.30 for the first time in over 5-months. There were no real definitive Brexit headlines and therefore the move was largely based on sentiment and preparation for the parliamentary vote today.
Johnson released his 110 page withdrawal bill yesterday afternoon and while many believe he will secure a sufficient number of votes (320) for his bill to pass, others believe that 24-hours isn’t enough time to accurately process all of the information and therefore want a delay on the vote. Opposition MPs find themselves caught between a rock and a hard place as they face the realization that come next Thursday it may be a case of Johnson’s deal or a no-deal. Analysts estimate that with Johnson’s deal, GBP/USD could surge up to 1.35 and with an extension, slip towards the 1.28 mark. Either way, a no-deal Brexit is now the least-likely scenario and GBP has reacted fondly to this sentiment.
Justin Trudeau has been re-elected in a narrow victory for the Liberal Party in Canada. The party is expected to win 156 seats, 14 short of a majority whilst the opposition are projected to take 122 votes. Whilst the victory is important, these projections mean he will be PM of a minority government, therefore making legislation harder to pass. The Canadian Dollar moved 50 pips against the USD on the announcement.
Next door, the US made progress with their trade war negotiations with China. Reports from Washington claim that the US have agreed to lift the newly proposed December tariffs on Chinese goods. After Trump’s upbeat address yesterday, it is expected that the US President will lift further tariffs in the lead up to Q1 2020.