It was another very quiet day for the pound (apparently everyone was at Royal Ascot) as it traded in a very narrow range against the US dollar. This was despite the morning release of UK factory orders hitting 29 year highs for this month. Whilst the city and the market welcomed this very positive news, it was not reflected in any significant uptick in GBP/USD, perhaps due to the fact that manufacturing only contributes a small portion of Britain’s GDP. Either way the news did confirm that the UK manufacturing sector is continuing to thrive in the wake of Brexit. It would appear that the main drag on the pound at the moment is the focus on Prime Minister Theresa May and the fact that she has not yet organised an agreement with the Democratic Unionist Party. With a vote on her legislation due next Thursday, it is a crucial 6-7 days for the PM where every single vote will count. Likewise, it will be a crucial and testing time for the pound. If May’s government has a rocky start to the Parliamentary session then GBP/USD could struggle and the key 1.25 resistance level could be tested.
The US dollar could not take advantage of the solid job data released in the afternoon either. Whilst the number of Americans who were filing for job claims only inched up by 3000, figures around 240,000 still indicate a very healthy labour market. The Federal Reserve’s James Bullard did announce in a speech that the Fed’s current interest rate rise plan is ‘unnecessarily aggressive’. Once again though, these dovish comments could not excite the market as this year he is not a FOMC voting member.