OFX Daily & Weekly Market News Feed https://www.ofx.com/en-gb/ OFX Daily & Weekly Market News Feed en-GB Copyright © 2024 www.ofx.com https://www.ofx.com/en-gb/forex-news/daily-and-weekly-market-news/2024/03/18/markets-anxiously-await-several-key-interest-rate-decisions-this-week/Markets anxiously await several key interest rate decisions this week <h3>GBP - British pound</h3> <p><span style="font-weight: 400">In Europe the ECB could be seen as the first Central Bank to start cutting rates from June.  Expectations are for the Euro to move lower in the coming weeks as markets increase expectations for additional interest rate cuts through the rest of 2024. </span><br /> <br /> <span style="font-weight: 400">The British Pound remains at a seven-month high vs the Dollar and Euro. The Bank of England meets this week to set interest rate policy as the market expects no change to support further growth in the UK economy. </span><br /> <br /> <span style="font-weight: 400">US inflation remains stickily high creating significant concerns for the Federal Reserve as it meets to decide interest rate policy this week. Market expectations reflect continued Dollar strength as stable and higher rates prevail. </span></p> <h3>Key Movers</h3> <p><span style="font-weight: 400">The Euro will likely trade softer this week as market expectations for an ECB rate cut in June ramp higher. As inflation in the Euro bloc softens and growth sputters it leaves the ECB in a precarious position when setting interest rate policy. </span><br /> <br /> <span style="font-weight: 400">In the UK the Pound awaits inflation data and the Bank of England's interest rate decision this week. The currency should trade sideways before any announcement. Investors expect no change in rates as UK inflation remains stubbornly high and above the MPC's 2% target rate. </span><br /> <br /> <span style="font-weight: 400">We see upside risk for the US Dollar this week as the Federal Reserve hints at less interest rate easing through 2024. Economic data remains strong in the US but inflation is simply not falling enough to warrant the level of interest rate cuts as was expected by the markets. </span></p> <h3>Expected Ranges</h3><strong>GBP/USD:</strong> 1.2700 - 1.2800 ▲<br><br><strong>GBP/EUR:</strong> 1.1650 - 1.1750 ▼<br><br><strong>GBP/AUD:</strong> 1.9350 - 1.9450 ▼<br><br><strong>EUR/USD:</strong> 1.0850 - 1.0950 ▲<br><br>Mon, 18 Mar 24 00:00:00 +0000https://www.ofx.com/en-gb/forex-news/daily-and-weekly-market-news/2024/03/18/markets-anxiously-await-several-key-interest-rate-decisions-this-week/https://www.ofx.com/en-gb/forex-news/daily-and-weekly-market-news/2024/03/15/dollar-rallies-on-hot-ppi-data/Dollar rallies on hot PPI data <h3>GBP - British pound</h3> <p>GBP/USD dipped yesterday as the latest US Producer Price Index exceeded expectations with a rise of 0.6% in February compared to January. This was far bigger than the 0.3% monthly gain that markets were expecting and as a result, the dollar rallied across the board. After Tuesday saw the Consumer Price Index unexpectedly push higher this reading means that markets are starting to pare back the amount of interest rate cuts the Federal Reserve will enact throughout the year. Although most still expect rates to start being cut in June we may only see two reductions in borrowing costs rather than three throughout 2024. GBP/USD managed to touch 1.2820 yesterday but was driven lower by the data with it eventually bottoming out around 1.2730. It’s another quiet day from the UK with little data of note. Next week brings the latest UK inflation figures and the Bank of England’s interest rate decision so there could be some domestically driven volatility for the pound as a result of these. GBP/USD is currently at 1.2740 with GBP/EUR continuing to hinge around 1.17.</p> <h3>Key Movers</h3> <p>EUR/USD has mirrored GBP/USD’s move lower over the past 24 hours on the back of the rising PPI numbers seen from the States yesterday. The pair fell from 1.0945 before the data touched a low of of around 1.0875 in Asian trading overnight. We may see some further swings this afternoon with a couple of releases due from the US. At 12:30 pm we have the monthly Empire State Manufacturing Index followed at 2 pm by Prelim University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data. That aside it’s a pretty quiet end to the week with nothing of note due from the Eurozone. Focus is already now likely turning to Wednesday’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision. EUR/USD sits at 1.0885.</p> <h3>Expected Ranges</h3><strong>GBP/USD:</strong> 1.2690 - 1.2820 ▼<br><br><strong>GBP/EUR:</strong> 1.1680 - 1.1750 ▼<br><br><strong>GBP/AUD:</strong> 1.9360 - 1.9500 ▲<br><br><strong>EUR/USD:</strong> 1.0840 - 1.0960 ▼<br><br>Fri, 15 Mar 24 00:00:00 +0000https://www.ofx.com/en-gb/forex-news/daily-and-weekly-market-news/2024/03/15/dollar-rallies-on-hot-ppi-data/https://www.ofx.com/en-gb/forex-news/daily-and-weekly-market-news/2024/03/14/markets-steady-ahead-of-us-retail-sales-and-ppi-data/Markets steady ahead of US Retail Sales and PPI data <h3>GBP - British pound</h3> <p><span style="font-weight: 400">GBP/USD has remained rangebound over the past 24 hours as financial markets seemed to shrug off the latest UK GDP figures which saw the economy return to growth in January posting a 0.2% gain m/m after December's 0.1% contraction. With January and February’s Services PMI numbers both showing solid, if unspectacular expansion it looks like the UK economy is set for moderate growth in the first quarter of the year after ending 2023 in a technical recession, we could see a period of consolidation for the pound ahead of Wednesday's inflation data which in turn is a day before the next Bank of England interest rate decision where no cut is all but guaranteed however the commentary from BoE Governor will be pored over for clues as to when it thinks an easing of monetary policy will be warranted. GBP/USD is up to 1.2810 recovering from a low of around 1.2775 seen 24 hours ago. GBP/EUR is up marginally to 1.1710.</span></p> <h3>Key Movers</h3> <p><span style="font-weight: 400">At 12:30 pm we will have last month’s US Producer Price Index and Retail Sales figures and last week’s Unemployment Claims data. The PPI number will likely gain the most attention given the focus there is on inflation at the moment. It is expected to rise 0.3% m/m with the core reading, which strips out volatile food and energy costs predicted to rise 0.2% m/m. Should these exceed expectations then the likelihood of a June interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve will drop which in turn should lead to some US dollar strength. It's yet another quiet day from the Eurozone with little noteworthy on the agenda. EUR/USD is little changed over the past 24 hours, trading around 1.0940.</span></p> <h3>Expected Ranges</h3><strong>GBP/USD:</strong> 1.2775 - 1.2880 ▲<br><br><strong>GBP/EUR:</strong> 1.1680 - 1.1760 ▲<br><br><strong>GBP/AUD:</strong> 1.9280 - 1.9445 ▼<br><br><strong>EUR/USD:</strong> 1.0890 - 1.0980 ▲<br><br>Thu, 14 Mar 24 00:00:00 +0000https://www.ofx.com/en-gb/forex-news/daily-and-weekly-market-news/2024/03/14/markets-steady-ahead-of-us-retail-sales-and-ppi-data/https://www.ofx.com/en-gb/forex-news/daily-and-weekly-market-news/2024/03/13/dollar-gains-on-us-inflation-uptick/Dollar gains on US inflation uptick <h3>GBP - British pound</h3> <p>The latest monthly UK GDP figures have been released this morning with initial estimates showing the economy expanded by 0.2% in January compared to December. This growth undid the fall of 0.1% seen the month before and future figures may show it is currently eking out anaemic growth if recent PMI data is anything to go by. The reading was in line with market expectations which is likely why the pound was relatively unmoved with GBP/USD currently trading just under 1.28 having fallen back yesterday after US inflation data. GBP/EUR continues to trade around 1.17. There is little data of note from the UK for the rest of the week so US releases will be the main area of attention.</p> <h3>Key Movers</h3> <p>Yesterday saw this week’s main event with the latest US CPI print showing an unexpected uptick from 3.1% to 3.2% y/y while no change was expected. The slight rise in prices saw the dollar strengthen however it has since given up most of these gains as markets largely shrugged off the minor increase with expectations still that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates from their 23-year high at its June meeting. We will hopefully get a clearer picture of the Fed's thinking at next Wednesday’s interest rate decision which is being accompanied by its latest economic projections. There is little data of note for the rest of the day with tomorrow’s US Producer Price Index the next data that could move forex markets. EUR/USD fell from around 1.0940 to 1.09 after the aforementioned CPI print before paring these losses. It is now around 1.0930.</p> <h3>Expected Ranges</h3><strong>GBP/USD:</strong> 1.2750 - 1.2860 ▼<br><br><strong>GBP/EUR:</strong> 1.1670 - 1.1760 ▲<br><br><strong>GBP/AUD:</strong> 1.9280 - 1.9445 ▲<br><br><strong>EUR/USD:</strong> 1.0870 - 1.0980 ▼<br><br>Wed, 13 Mar 24 00:00:00 +0000https://www.ofx.com/en-gb/forex-news/daily-and-weekly-market-news/2024/03/13/dollar-gains-on-us-inflation-uptick/https://www.ofx.com/en-gb/forex-news/daily-and-weekly-market-news/2024/03/12/pound-slips-on-uk-wage-growth-data/Pound slips on UK wage growth data <h3>GBP - British pound</h3> <p>The pound has weakened this morning as UK wage growth missed forecasts. Compared to last year they were shown to have grown at 5.6%. This figure fell from 5.8% which was a slightly bigger drop than markets had been predicting.<br /> <br /> Wage growth has been an area of particular focus for the Bank of England given their rapid rise since the most severe pandemic lockdown restrictions were lifted in the UK with the Bank keen for them to continue to trend lower before they decide to cut interest rates. Simultaneously, the unemployment rate was shown to have unexpectedly ticked higher to 3.9% from 3.8%. GBP/USD is now back under 1.28 as a result, trading around one cent lower than the eight-month high it hit at the end of last week. GBP/EUR has fallen back to around 1.17 after getting as high as 1.1760 in very early trade yesterday. The next domestic data of note from the UK is tomorrow's monthly GDP reading which is expected to show the economy expanded 0.2% in January compared to December.</p> <h3>Key Movers</h3> <p>This week's main event is scheduled for release at lunchtime with the latest US CPI data due. The yearly figure is expected to hold at 3.1% with any deviation from this likely to cause some volatility for the dollar and equity markets. After a rapid decline, inflation in the States has held relatively steady since last July likely bolstered by the ongoing resilience of the US economy as it managed to ride out the wave of decades-high prices remarkably well. It's another quiet day from the Eurozone with nothing on the domestic calendar likely to move the shared currency. EUR/USD trades at 1.0925.</p> <h3>Expected Ranges</h3><strong>GBP/USD:</strong> 1.2720 - 1.2880 ▼<br><br><strong>GBP/EUR:</strong> 1.1665 - 1.1760 ▼<br><br><strong>GBP/AUD:</strong> 1.9260 - 1.9445 ▼<br><br><strong>EUR/USD:</strong> 1.0860 - 1.0980 ▲<br><br>Tue, 12 Mar 24 00:00:00 +0000https://www.ofx.com/en-gb/forex-news/daily-and-weekly-market-news/2024/03/12/pound-slips-on-uk-wage-growth-data/