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Pound rises as Merkel extends olive branch to May

Friday 20th October
US Dollar

UK Retail Sales missed target yesterday morning dragging sterling lower throughout the day. September saw a 0.8% drop for the month with the report highlighting rising costs in all store types was squeezing spending power. Year on year price growth stood at 3.3% the highest since March 2012 giving another illustration of how the pounds drop since the EU Referendum is affecting consumers.

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Today's expected ranges

GBP / USD
1.3080 – 1.32
GBP / EUR
1.1070 – 1.12
GBP / AUD
1.6680 – 1.6840
GBP / NZD
1.8725 – 1.89

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Last Week Market Recap

Monday 16th October 2017

AUD/USD gained a fraction last week as the United States reported mixed economic numbers, while Australian numbers were mostly better than expected. The week began with the pair declining and making its weekly low of 0.7746 on Monday in the absence of any significant data from either country. The rate began its rally on Tuesday after the Australian NAB Business Confidence index printed at 7 compared to a previous reading of 5. Alan Oster, Chief Economist for NAB noted that “The sustained weakness in retail conditions should justifiably be raising doubts around expectations for any imminent, and sustained rebound in consumer spending, although tough competition and other margin pressures are likely behind the result as well.” The pair continued fractionally higher on Wednesday after the release of the FOMC’s Meeting Minutes. On Thursday, the rate increased by another fraction after Australian MI Inflation Expectations printed at +4.3% versus a previous reading of +3.8%. The pair then made its weekly high of 0.7896 on Friday after the RBA Financial Stability Review noted that, “A number of policy uncertainties and geopolitical risks persist, which, if they were to escalate, could trigger a reappraisal of asset valuations and a spike in volatility while also weighing on the economic outlook.” AUD/USD closed at 0.7882, with an overall weekly gain of +0.9%. 

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