Home Daily Commentaries Aussie dollar falls back below 67 US cents

Aussie dollar falls back below 67 US cents

Daily Currency Update

The Aussie dollar is slightly weaker this morning when valued against the greenback as sentiment shifted sour on Friday except for Federal Reserve policymakers continuing its hawkish campaign. A modest fall in the US Treasury bond yields has kept the US Dollar bulls on the defensive, which in turn, is a key factor offering some support to the Aussie dollar. That said, expectations are that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue to hike interest rates, although at a slower pace. However last week’s upbeat US Retail Sales data cast doubts on the peak inflation narrative and forced investors to scale back their bets for a less aggressive policy tightening by the Fed. Apart from this, expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will stick to its dovish course might hold back bulls from placing aggressive bets around the AUD/USD pair. The Australian dollar is currently trading at 0.6639 at the time of writing.
The economic calendar is very quiet this week in Australia. There are no scheduled releases today. On Tuesday Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe is due to deliver a speech titled "Price Stability, the Supply Side, and Prosperity" at the Annual Committee for Economic Development of Australia Dinner, in Melbourne. Volatility is often experienced during his speeches as traders attempt to decipher interest rate clues. On Wednesday we will see the release of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) which is a survey of about 400 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories.

Key Movers

On Friday U.S. existing home sales tumbled for a record ninth straight month in October as the 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit a 20-year high and prices remained elevated, pushing homeownership out of the reach of many Americans. Existing home sales dropped 5.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.43 million units last month. Outside the plunge during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in the spring of 2020, this was the lowest level since December 2011. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate breached 7% in October for the first time since 2002, according to data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac. The rate averaged 6.61% in the latest week. The U.S. central bank's rate-hiking cycle, the fastest since the 1980s, has raised the risks of a recession.

Looking ahead this week in the United States and on Tuesday we will see the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s November policy-setting meeting are expected to help shape the holiday-shortened week ahead on Wall Street as markets look to rebound after a losing week. The U.S. stock and bond markets will be closed on Thursday, Nov. 24, in observance of the Thanksgiving holiday. Trading will also end early on Black Friday, with markets shuttering at 1 p.m. E.T.

Expected Ranges

  • AUD/USD: 0.6550 - 0.6750 ▼
  • AUD/EUR: 0.6350 - 0.6550 ▼
  • GBP/AUD: 1.7700 - 1.7900 ▲
  • AUD/NZD: 1.0650 - 1.0850 ▼
  • AUD/CAD: 0.8800 - 0.9000 ▼