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UK General Election dominates

Daily Currency Update

GBP - British PoundAll eyes remain on the YouGov's final MRD Election poll tonight, which markets have historically trusted as an accurate prediction of the December 12th UK General Election result. Though the polls have unanimously shown a Conservative lead thus far, the lead has been eaten into somewhat by Corbyn over the last few weeks. Today is the penultimate day of campaigning for the parties. Labour claims NHS under-funding is putting patients at risk and the Tories are warning about a hung parliament. The Conservatives are also attacking Labour over the costs of delivering and running new government agencies promised in the party's manifesto. Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson will focus on the cost to government of Brexit.UK GDP for the 3 months to October has also just been released. Growth was expected to be muted in the period as Brexit uncertainty continues to weigh on the economy, and this was very much the case, with a flat reading of 0.

Key Movers

GBP is taking its drivers from the General Election and there will be a close eye on the YouGov poll tonight. The ECB are meeting on December 12th, and in Christine Lagarde's first meeting in charge of the Central Bank, there will be focus on Eurozone inflation as well as strategy for 2020. This will provide EUR some of the direction it needs. Over in the US, the Federal Reserve meet tomorrow. The market expectation is that rates will be left on hold, but it will interesting to see what the forward guidance might unravel. With the US/China trade war, and the next round of tariffs on December 15th, the USD will take direction from the meeting and any deal that the two countries will sign ahead of the planned tariffs. The Central Banks have held rates recently, but there is an expectation across a number of the major economies that there could be a cuts in 2020 and their currency weaken.

Expected Ranges

  • GBP/USD: 1.3140 - 1.3280 ▲
  • GBP/EUR: 1.1860 - 1.1970 ▲
  • GBP/AUD: 1.9300 - 1.9510 ▲
  • GBP/CAD: 1.7400 - 1.7580 ▲
  • GBP/NZD: 2.0100 - 2.0340 ▲