Home Daily Commentaries The Greenback falls after showing flat inflation numbers in comparison with last month.

The Greenback falls after showing flat inflation numbers in comparison with last month.

Thursday 10 October, 2019

Daily Currency Update

USD - United States DollarAccording to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index was unchanged in September on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.1 percent in August. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.7 percent before seasonal adjustment. One key item of note from the FOMC minutes is that the FOMC is concerned about low inflation expectations. However, the discussion at the FOMC centered on the downside risks due to trade tensions. There was also divergence on thoughts that the economy is healthy and that there is a need for a cut or two in the Fed rates. The well-known division between the FOMC hawks and doves paints the level of uncertainty. Powell reiterated that while the economy, "faces some risks," overall, it's, "in a good place. " Despite Chinese negotiators not being optimistic about a more comprehensive agreement, China is still open to reaching a partial trade deal with the U.S. as long as no tariffs are added. In exchange, it would offer concessions in non-core areas like agriculture, which could boost purchases of American soybeans to 30 million tons a year. Just a few hours before, noise about blacklists, investment curbs, visa bans, and an angry response to the NBA had been filling the headlines. Trade talks are restarting today. The Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc fell against the dollar, which otherwise has stayed within narrow ranges versus the rest of the G-10 basket. Technically speaking, the U.S. dollar index falls after hitting an overbought level; however, it touched an intraday low at around 6 am EST, and it is bouncing from there. It is down 0.3 percent so far in the day, and the EUR/USD pair is rising 0.4 percent at the time of this writing.

Key Movers

U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his Irish counterpart Leo Varadkar express hope and the GBP/USD pair jumps on the news. Both agreed there is a, "pathway to a possible deal, " following "detailed and constructive" Brexit talks.

Expected Ranges

  • USD/CAD: 1.3200 - 1.3400 ▼
  • EUR/USD: 1.0987 - 1.1017 ▼
  • GBP/USD: 1.2220 - 1.2333 ▲
  • AUD/USD: 0.6739 - 0.6797 ▲
  • NZD/USD: 0.6290 - 0.6343 ▲