Aussie dollar trades in tight range as focus shifts to US data and RBA policy
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Daily Currency Update
The AUD/USD pair is trading in a narrow range around the 0.6600 level during the late European session on Thursday, as market participants adopt a cautious stance ahead of upcoming high-impact economic data from the United States. The pair remains in consolidation mode following a relatively subdued trading week, with volatility likely to pick up as fresh macroeconomic drivers emerge. Investors are closely watching for the release of the U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending September 19, along with August’s Durable Goods Orders, both due later today. These indicators could offer fresh insights into the health of the U.S. labor market and broader economic activity, influencing expectations around the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory. Any signs of labor market cooling or weaker-than-expected durable goods data may weigh on the U.S. dollar, providing potential upside for the Aussie. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar remains sensitive to domestic monetary policy expectations, with attention turning to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rate decision next Tuesday. The central bank is widely anticipated to leave the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 3.60%, maintaining its current stance amid ongoing concerns about sticky inflation and a slowing economy. Although no policy change is expected, market participants will scrutinise the RBA’s statement for forward guidance, particularly regarding the outlook for inflation, employment and household spending. Any hawkish undertones could lend support to the AUD, while a more dovish or cautious tone may exert downward pressure. In the absence of major domestic data ahead of the RBA meeting, the Aussie remains largely driven by external factors, including risk sentiment, commodity prices and U.S. economic indicators. As such, today’s U.S. data could set the near-term direction for the AUD/USD pair, especially if it leads to a reassessment of Fed policy expectations. For now, the AUD/USD remains rangebound, with traders awaiting clear directional cues from upcoming data releases and central bank commentary.Key Movers
The US economy grew more strongly from April to June than earlier reports suggested. According to the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.8% in the second quarter of 2025. This is higher than the previous estimate of 3.3%, showing that economic activity picked up more than expected during that period. However, growth in the first quarter was revised downward, showing a slight contraction of 0.6%. This means the economy shrank slightly from January to March before recovering in the second quarter. One of the biggest reasons for the upward revision in the second quarter was stronger consumer spending. Americans spent more on things like transportation, financial services and insurance than previously thought. Consumer spending grew at an annual rate of 2.5%, compared to the earlier estimate of 1.6%. This suggests that households were more confident and active in the economy than originally reported. On the other hand, exports were revised down slightly, which offset some of the gains from consumer spending. These updated figures come just days after the Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates for the first time this year. The central bank made this move in response to signs of a slowdown in the labor market, aiming to support the economy. The revised GDP data offers a more positive picture of economic growth, but the Fed will continue to watch key indicators closely to decide on future policy moves.Expected Ranges
- AUD/USD: 0.6450 - 0.6650 ▼
- AUD/EUR: 0.5500 - 0.5700 ▼
- GBP/AUD: 2.0300 - 2.0500 ▲
- AUD/NZD: 1.1200 - 1.1400 ▲
- AUD/CAD: 0.9000 - 0.9200 ▼