Daily Currency Update
The Australian dollar is slightly weaker this morning when valued against the Greenback currently trading at 0.6392 at time of writing. The Aussie pair weakens as the US dollar resumes its upside recovery after a corrective move on Thursday. The outlook of the Aussie dollar remains uncertain until both China and the US reduces additional tariffs imposed recently. The impact of a slowdown in the Chinese economy will also be visible on Australian exports, given it is the largest trading partner of Beijing. Looking ahead this week and on Wednesday the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures. Consumer prices account for most of the overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate. On Thursday we will see the release of both the Goods Trade Balance and Index of Commodity Prices. To close out the week on Friday we will see the release of the monthly Retail Sales and Producer Price Index (PPI).
Key Movers
The US dollar (USD) strengthens modestly on Friday as investors digest contradictory messaging from the United States and China regarding potential tariff negotiations. While President Donald Trump suggested dialogue is ongoing, Beijing explicitly denied any current talks. This divergence injected volatility into markets, though the Greenback maintained an edge, with the US dollar Index (DXY) up around 0.37% near the 99.65 zone at the time of writing. On the data front the cost of orders for durable goods received by factory owners rose at a robust pace of 9.2% in March, compared to estimates of 2% and the prior release of 0.9%. Business owners would look to pass on the impact of higher cost to consumers. Such a scenario will boost inflation and limit the Federal Reserve (Fed) to support monetary policy expansion. Gold price made a U-turn and erased Thursday’s gains, falling below the $3,300 mark as the Greenback remained bid and Bullion failed to capitalize on falling US Treasury yields. A de-escalation of the trade war between the US and China sponsored a leg-down in the precious metal, which exchanged hands at $3,294, losing over 1.60%. Next week, traders are eyeing the release of the US JOLTS report for March, the first reading of Q1 2025 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the ISM Manufacturing PMI, and April’s Nonfarm Payrolls figures.
Expected Ranges
- AUD/USD: 0.6300 - 0.6500 ▼
- AUD/EUR: 0.5550 - 0.5750 ▼
- GBP/AUD: 2.0700 - 2.0900 ▲
- AUD/NZD: 1.0600 - 1.0800 ▲
- AUD/CAD: 0.8750 - 0.8950 ▼