Home Daily Commentaries Aussie dollar falls below US$0.63

Aussie dollar falls below US$0.63

Daily Currency Update

The Australian dollar is slightly weaker this morning when valued against the Greenback currently trading at 0.6250 at time of writing. The AUD/USD pair remained depressed during the American session below the 0.6300 barrier as a stronger US dollar (USD) and disappointing employment data from Australia continued to weigh. Australia's unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1 per cent in February, as labour force participation declined. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), 52,800 jobs were lost from the economy, well below forecasts of a 30,000 increase in employment. The drop in employment came as fewer people were in work or looking for a job, with the participation rate falling to 66.8 per cent, from a record high of 67.3 per cent in January. The ABS attributed part of the fall in employment to fewer older workers returning to work in February, with employment among older age groups lower than in the same month in 2024. Looking ahead this week and today we will see the release of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy. On Thursday the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI). Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate.

Key Movers

The US dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US dollar (USD) against a basket of currencies, is ticking higher on Friday, helped by a wave of geopolitical unease. Despite a retreat in Treasury yields and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) reaffirmation of its cutting path for 2025, the Greenback gains modest ground. The index attempts to break out of the March low range for the third straight day. The Federal Reserve (Fed) maintained its forecast for two 25 basis points rate cuts in 2025 at the end of March policy meeting on Wednesday and gave a bump higher to its inflation projection. The outlook assists the Greenback to build on its modest recovery from a multi-month low for the third straight day and climb to a fresh weekly high. US stocks climbed into positive territory on Friday as investors weighed mixed messages from the Federal Reserve while President Donald Trump indicated he'd retain 'flexibility' when it comes to a reciprocal tariff plan set for April 2. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged above the flat line while the S&P 500 rose 0.1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 0.5%. All three major averages fell by nearly 1% earlier in the session. Most of this week's gains came after a stock market rally followed the Fed's decision on Wednesday to stay the course for two more rate cuts this year.

Expected Ranges

  • AUD/USD: 0.6150 - 0.6350 ▼
  • AUD/EUR: 0.5650 - 0.5850 ▼
  • GBP/AUD: 2.0350 - 2.0550 ▲
  • AUD/NZD: 1.0750 - 1.0950 ▼
  • AUD/CAD: 0.8850 - 0.9050 ▼

Written by

Brett Ottawa

OFXpert

Brett brings a wealth of experience, boasting more than 15 years in the foreign exchange market. He started his foreign exchange career with OFX more than a decade ago, as a private dealer catering to individual clients. He later transitioned to the corporate sector, assuming the position of Corporate Senior Relationship Manager. What truly excites Brett is the opportunity to engage with people, supporting their business growth and sharing in their successes.